IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v185y2019icp192-197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Theoretical derivation of wind plant power distribution with the consideration of wind turbine reliability

Author

Listed:
  • Eryilmaz, Serkan
  • Devrim, Yilser

Abstract

The wind power generated by a wind plant has a stochastic nature due to randomness in the wind speed. Although the empirical distribution of the wind power has been extensively studied by using data sets in different regions, several works focused on theoretical distribution of the wind power produced by wind turbines. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind plant power is obtained. In the derivation of the distribution of the wind plant power, wind turbine reliability is taken into account. The wind plant power distribution can be effectively used if the wind speed probability distribution is known. Theoretical results are illustrated for Weibull and Birnbaum–Saunders wind speed distributions which have been found to be suitable for real data collected at two different locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Eryilmaz, Serkan & Devrim, Yilser, 2019. "Theoretical derivation of wind plant power distribution with the consideration of wind turbine reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 192-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:192-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018300012
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xydas, Erotokritos & Qadrdan, Meysam & Marmaras, Charalampos & Cipcigan, Liana & Jenkins, Nick & Ameli, Hossein, 2017. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting and its application in the scheduling of gas-fired generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 382-394.
    2. Wais, Piotr, 2017. "Two and three-parameter Weibull distribution in available wind power analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 15-29.
    3. Li, Jianlan & Zhang, Xuran & Zhou, Xing & Lu, Luyi, 2019. "Reliability assessment of wind turbine bearing based on the degradation-Hidden-Markov model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1076-1087.
    4. Alhmoud, Lina & Wang, Bingsen, 2018. "A review of the state-of-the-art in wind-energy reliability analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1643-1651.
    5. Li, Y.F. & Valla, S. & Zio, E., 2015. "Reliability assessment of generic geared wind turbines by GTST-MLD model and Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 222-233.
    6. D׳Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo & Prattico, Flavio, 2015. "Reliability measures for indexed semi-Markov chains applied to wind energy production," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 170-177.
    7. Zhang, Cai Wen & Zhang, Tieling & Chen, Nan & Jin, Tongdan, 2013. "Reliability modeling and analysis for a novel design of modular converter system of wind turbines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 86-94.
    8. Wang, Huai-zhi & Li, Gang-qiang & Wang, Gui-bin & Peng, Jian-chun & Jiang, Hui & Liu, Yi-tao, 2017. "Deep learning based ensemble approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 56-70.
    9. Sansavini, G. & Piccinelli, R. & Golea, L.R. & Zio, E., 2014. "A stochastic framework for uncertainty analysis in electric power transmission systems with wind generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-81.
    10. Li, Yan-Fu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 28-36.
    11. Fernando Santos & Ângelo P Teixeira & C Guedes Soares, 2015. "Modelling and simulation of the operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(5), pages 385-393, October.
    12. Acuña, Luceny Guzmán & Padilla, Ricardo Vasquez & Mercado, Alcides Santander, 2017. "Measuring reliability of hybrid photovoltaic-wind energy systems: A new indicator," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 68-77.
    13. Zárate-Miñano, Rafael & Anghel, Marian & Milano, Federico, 2013. "Continuous wind speed models based on stochastic differential equations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 42-49.
    14. Safari, Bonfils, 2011. "Modeling wind speed and wind power distributions in Rwanda," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 925-935, February.
    15. Guo, Haitao & Watson, Simon & Tavner, Peter & Xiang, Jiangping, 2009. "Reliability analysis for wind turbines with incomplete failure data collected from after the date of initial installation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1057-1063.
    16. Shoaib, Muhammad & Siddiqui, Imran & Amir, Yousaf Muhammad & Rehman, Saif Ur, 2017. "Evaluation of wind power potential in Baburband (Pakistan) using Weibull distribution function," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1343-1351.
    17. Parada, Leandro & Herrera, Carlos & Flores, Paulo & Parada, Victor, 2018. "Assessing the energy benefit of using a wind turbine micro-siting model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 591-601.
    18. Wang, Jianzhou & Hu, Jianming & Ma, Kailiang, 2016. "Wind speed probability distribution estimation and wind energy assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 881-899.
    19. Taylor, James W. & Jeon, Jooyoung, 2015. "Forecasting wind power quantiles using conditional kernel estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 370-379.
    20. Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam & Erdik, Tarkan & Dabanlı, İsmail & Şen, Zekai, 2012. "Theoretical derivation of wind power probability distribution function and applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 809-814.
    21. Chang, Tian Pau, 2011. "Performance comparison of six numerical methods in estimating Weibull parameters for wind energy application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 272-282, January.
    22. Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2018. "Reliability analysis of multi-state system with three-state components and its application to wind energy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 58-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Bulanık, İrem & Devrim, Yilser, 2021. "Reliability based modeling of hybrid solar/wind power system for long term performance assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Kan, Cihangir & Devrim, Yilser & Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2020. "On the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power when there is a correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Hariri, Ali-Mohammad & Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed & A. Hejazi, Maryam, 2020. "A novel generalized analytical reliability assessment method of smart grids including renewable and non-renewable distributed generations and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Liming Gou & Jian Zhang & Lihao Wen & Yu Fan, 2024. "State Reliability of Wind Turbines Based on XGBoost–LSTM and Their Application in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Navarro, Jorge, 2022. "A decision theoretic framework for reliability-based optimal wind turbine selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Postnikov, Ivan, 2022. "A reliability assessment of the heating from a hybrid energy source based on combined heat and power and wind power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Jianlan & Zhang, Xuran & Zhou, Xing & Lu, Luyi, 2019. "Reliability assessment of wind turbine bearing based on the degradation-Hidden-Markov model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1076-1087.
    2. Loukatou, Angeliki & Howell, Sydney & Johnson, Paul & Duck, Peter, 2018. "Stochastic wind speed modelling for estimation of expected wind power output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1328-1340.
    3. Katinas, Vladislovas & Gecevicius, Giedrius & Marciukaitis, Mantas, 2018. "An investigation of wind power density distribution at location with low and high wind speeds using statistical model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 442-451.
    4. Tazi, Nacef & Châtelet, Eric & Bouzidi, Youcef, 2018. "How combined performance and propagation of failure dependencies affect the reliability of a MSS," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 531-541.
    5. Allouhi, A. & Zamzoum, O. & Islam, M.R. & Saidur, R. & Kousksou, T. & Jamil, A. & Derouich, A., 2017. "Evaluation of wind energy potential in Morocco's coastal regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 311-324.
    6. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2019. "Wind speed distribution selection – A review of recent development and progress," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Chinmoy, Lakshmi & Iniyan, S. & Goic, Ranko, 2019. "Modeling wind power investments, policies and social benefits for deregulated electricity market – A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 364-377.
    8. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Navarro, Jorge, 2022. "A decision theoretic framework for reliability-based optimal wind turbine selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    9. Deep, Sneh & Sarkar, Arnab & Ghawat, Mayur & Rajak, Manoj Kumar, 2020. "Estimation of the wind energy potential for coastal locations in India using the Weibull model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 319-339.
    10. Bagci, Kubra & Arslan, Talha & Celik, H. Eray, 2021. "Inverted Kumarswamy distribution for modeling the wind speed data: Lake Van, Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Kwami Senam A. Sedzro & Adekunlé Akim Salami & Pierre Akuété Agbessi & Mawugno Koffi Kodjo, 2022. "Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-28, November.
    12. Bahrami, Arian & Teimourian, Amir & Okoye, Chiemeka Onyeka & Khosravi, Nima, 2019. "Assessing the feasibility of wind energy as a power source in Turkmenistan; a major opportunity for Central Asia's energy market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 415-427.
    13. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Bulanık, İrem & Devrim, Yilser, 2021. "Reliability based modeling of hybrid solar/wind power system for long term performance assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Munir Ali Elfarra & Mustafa Kaya, 2018. "Comparison of Optimum Spline-Based Probability Density Functions to Parametric Distributions for the Wind Speed Data in Terms of Annual Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    15. Saeed, Muhammad Abid & Ahmed, Zahoor & Zhang, Weidong, 2020. "Wind energy potential and economic analysis with a comparison of different methods for determining the optimal distribution parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1092-1109.
    16. Guedes, Kevin S. & de Andrade, Carla F. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Mangueira, Rivanilso dos S. & de Moura, Elineudo P., 2020. "Performance analysis of metaheuristic optimization algorithms in estimating the parameters of several wind speed distributions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    17. Wang, Huaizhi & Xue, Wenli & Liu, Yitao & Peng, Jianchun & Jiang, Hui, 2020. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting based on spiking neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Arslan, Talha & Bulut, Y. Murat & Altın Yavuz, Arzu, 2014. "Comparative study of numerical methods for determining Weibull parameters for wind energy potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 820-825.
    19. Herrero-Novoa, Cristina & Pérez, Isidro A. & Sánchez, M. Luisa & García, Ma Ángeles & Pardo, Nuria & Fernández-Duque, Beatriz, 2017. "Wind speed description and power density in northern Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 967-976.
    20. Kang, Jichuan & Sun, Liping & Guedes Soares, C., 2019. "Fault Tree Analysis of floating offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1455-1467.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:192-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.