IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v209y2021ics0951832021000417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reliability based modeling of hybrid solar/wind power system for long term performance assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Eryilmaz, Serkan
  • Bulanık, Ä°rem
  • Devrim, Yilser

Abstract

This paper is concerned with reliability based long-term performance assessment of hybrid solar/wind power system. In particular, an analytical expression is obtained for the theoretical distribution of the power output of the hybrid system by taking into account the reliability values of renewable energy components. An expression for the expected energy not supplied (EENS) is also derived and used to compute the energy index of reliability (EIR) that is directly related to EENS. Because the derived expressions involve reliability values which are related to mechanical states of the renewable energy components, the results enable us to evaluate properly the performance of the hybrid system. A numerical example is included to illustrate the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Eryilmaz, Serkan & Bulanık, Ä°rem & Devrim, Yilser, 2021. "Reliability based modeling of hybrid solar/wind power system for long term performance assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:209:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021000417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107478
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021000417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107478?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Devrim, Yilser, 2019. "Theoretical derivation of wind plant power distribution with the consideration of wind turbine reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 192-197.
    2. Scheu, Matti Niclas & Kolios, Athanasios & Fischer, Tim & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 28-39.
    3. Adedipe, Tosin & Shafiee, Mahmood & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Bayesian Network Modelling for the Wind Energy Industry: An Overview," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Li, Yan-Fu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 28-36.
    5. Ceran, Bartosz, 2019. "The concept of use of PV/WT/FC hybrid power generation system for smoothing the energy profile of the consumer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 853-865.
    6. Anoune, Kamal & Bouya, Mohsine & Astito, Abdelali & Abdellah, Abdellatif Ben, 2018. "Sizing methods and optimization techniques for PV-wind based hybrid renewable energy system: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 652-673.
    7. Acuña, Luceny Guzmán & Padilla, Ricardo Vasquez & Mercado, Alcides Santander, 2017. "Measuring reliability of hybrid photovoltaic-wind energy systems: A new indicator," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 68-77.
    8. Hadidian Moghaddam, Mohammad Jafar & Kalam, Akhtar & Nowdeh, Saber Arabi & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Babanezhad, Manoochehr & Saha, Sajeeb, 2019. "Optimal sizing and energy management of stand-alone hybrid photovoltaic/wind system based on hydrogen storage considering LOEE and LOLE reliability indices using flower pollination algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1412-1434.
    9. Pinar Pérez, Jesús María & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro & Tobias, Andrew & Papaelias, Mayorkinos, 2013. "Wind turbine reliability analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 463-472.
    10. Kan, Cihangir & Devrim, Yilser & Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2020. "On the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power when there is a correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    11. Guo, Haitao & Watson, Simon & Tavner, Peter & Xiang, Jiangping, 2009. "Reliability analysis for wind turbines with incomplete failure data collected from after the date of initial installation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1057-1063.
    12. Cartelle Barros, Juan José & Lara Coira, Manuel & de la Cruz López, María Pilar & del Caño Gochi, Alfredo, 2016. "Probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis for renewable and non-renewable power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 774-787.
    13. Faza, Ayman, 2018. "A probabilistic model for estimating the effects of photovoltaic sources on the power systems reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 67-77.
    14. Hasan, Kazi Nazmul & Preece, Robin & Milanović, Jovica V., 2019. "Existing approaches and trends in uncertainty modelling and probabilistic stability analysis of power systems with renewable generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 168-180.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Zhang, Dongkai & Ding, Chugang & Chen, Ke & Kou, Lei, 2022. "Predicting wind-caused floater intrusion risk for overhead contact lines based on Bayesian neural network with spatiotemporal correlation analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Zeng, Ying & Huang, Tudi & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2023. "Reliability modeling for power converter in satellite considering periodic phased mission," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Zhang, Xi & Tu, Haicheng & Guo, Jianbo & Ma, Shicong & Li, Zhen & Xia, Yongxiang & Tse, Chi Kong, 2021. "Braess paradox and double-loop optimization method to enhance power grid resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Navarro, Jorge, 2022. "A decision theoretic framework for reliability-based optimal wind turbine selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Zou, Yanhua & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2024. "Loss of load probability for power systems based on renewable sources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Postnikov, Ivan, 2022. "A reliability assessment of the heating from a hybrid energy source based on combined heat and power and wind power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    7. Beyza, Jesus & Yusta, Jose M., 2021. "The effects of the high penetration of renewable energies on the reliability and vulnerability of interconnected electric power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Mohammadali Kiehbadroudinezhad & Adel Merabet & Homa Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, 2022. "Review of Latest Advances and Prospects of Energy Storage Systems: Considering Economic, Reliability, Sizing, and Environmental Impacts Approach," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-25, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Postnikov, Ivan, 2022. "A reliability assessment of the heating from a hybrid energy source based on combined heat and power and wind power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    2. Kan, Cihangir & Devrim, Yilser & Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2020. "On the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power when there is a correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Li, Jianlan & Zhang, Xuran & Zhou, Xing & Lu, Luyi, 2019. "Reliability assessment of wind turbine bearing based on the degradation-Hidden-Markov model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1076-1087.
    4. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Navarro, Jorge, 2022. "A decision theoretic framework for reliability-based optimal wind turbine selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Devrim, Yilser, 2019. "Theoretical derivation of wind plant power distribution with the consideration of wind turbine reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 192-197.
    6. Bartosz Ceran & Agata Orłowska, 2019. "The Impact of Power Source Performance Decrease in a PV/WT/FC Hybrid Power Generation System on the Result of a Multi-Criteria Analysis of Load Distribution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Hariri, Ali-Mohammad & Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed & A. Hejazi, Maryam, 2020. "A novel generalized analytical reliability assessment method of smart grids including renewable and non-renewable distributed generations and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Homeyra Akter & Harun Or Rashid Howlader & Ahmed Y. Saber & Paras Mandal & Hiroshi Takahashi & Tomonobu Senjyu, 2021. "Optimal Sizing of Hybrid Microgrid in a Remote Island Considering Advanced Direct Load Control for Demand Response and Low Carbon Emission," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    9. Tazi, Nacef & Châtelet, Eric & Bouzidi, Youcef, 2018. "How combined performance and propagation of failure dependencies affect the reliability of a MSS," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 531-541.
    10. Eslami, M. & Nahani, P., 2021. "How policies affect the cost-effectiveness of residential renewable energy in Iran: A techno-economic analysis for optimization," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Shuting Wan & Lifeng Cheng & Xiaoling Sheng, 2015. "Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Come Zebra, Emília Inês & van der Windt, Henny J. & Nhumaio, Geraldo & Faaij, André P.C., 2021. "A review of hybrid renewable energy systems in mini-grids for off-grid electrification in developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Shafiee, Mahmood & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2019. "Maintenance optimization and inspection planning of wind energy assets: Models, methods and strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    14. Amara, Sihem & Toumi, Sana & Salah, Chokri Ben & Saidi, Abdelaziz Salah, 2021. "Improvement of techno-economic optimal sizing of a hybrid off-grid micro-grid system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    15. Canales, Fausto A. & Jurasz, Jakub & Beluco, Alexandre & Kies, Alexander, 2020. "Assessing temporal complementarity between three variable energy sources through correlation and compromise programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    16. Pliego Marugán, Alberto & Peco Chacón, Ana María & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro, 2019. "Reliability analysis of detecting false alarms that employ neural networks: A real case study on wind turbines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Soszyńska-Budny Joanna & Chmielewski Mariusz & Pioch Joanna, 2023. "Reliability of Renewable Power Generation using the Example of Offshore Wind Farms," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 228-245, June.
    18. Cevasco, D. & Koukoura, S. & Kolios, A.J., 2021. "Reliability, availability, maintainability data review for the identification of trends in offshore wind energy applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    19. Ferdinando Chiacchio & Fabio Famoso & Diego D’Urso & Sebastian Brusca & Jose Ignacio Aizpurua & Luca Cedola, 2018. "Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant by Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    20. Yan, Xiangbin & Qiu, Hui & Peng, Rui & Wu, Shaomin, 2020. "Optimal configuration of a power grid system with a dynamic performance sharing mechanism," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:209:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021000417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.