IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i14p2517-d866815.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Wen-Jing Zhu

    (Affiliated Mental Health Center, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou Seventh People’s Hospital, Hangzhou 310013, China)

  • Shou-Feng Shen

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China)

  • Wen-Xiu Ma

    (Department of Mathematics, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China
    Department of Mathematics, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620-5700, USA
    School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, Private Bag X2046, Mmabatho 2735, South Africa)

Abstract

In this paper, we would like to propose a (2+1)-dimensional fractional-order epidemic model with pulse jumps to describe the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The problem of identifying the involved parameters in the proposed model is reduced to a minimization problem of a quadratic objective function, based on the reported data. Moreover, we perform numerical simulation to study the effect of the parameters in diverse fractional-order cases. The number of undiscovered cases can be calculated precisely to assess the severity of the outbreak. The results by numerical simulation show that the degree of accuracy is higher than the classical epidemic models. The regular testing protocol is very important to find the undiscovered cases in the beginning of the outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Jing Zhu & Shou-Feng Shen & Wen-Xiu Ma, 2022. "A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:14:p:2517-:d:866815
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/14/2517/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/14/2517/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Jin, Zhen & Sun, Gui-Quan & Seidu, Baba & Yankson, Ernest & Abidemi, Afeez & Oduro, F.T. & Moore, Stephen E. & Okyere, Eric, 2021. "Sensitivity assessment and optimal economic evaluation of a new COVID-19 compartmental epidemic model with control interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Annas, Suwardi & Isbar Pratama, Muh. & Rifandi, Muh. & Sanusi, Wahidah & Side, Syafruddin, 2020. "Stability analysis and numerical simulation of SEIR model for pandemic COVID-19 spread in Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Arenas, Abraham J. & González-Parra, Gilberto & Chen-Charpentier, Benito M., 2016. "Construction of nonstandard finite difference schemes for the SI and SIR epidemic models of fractional order," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 48-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abidemi, Afeez & Ackora-Prah, Joseph & Fatoyinbo, Hammed Olawale & Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K., 2022. "Lyapunov stability analysis and optimization measures for a dengue disease transmission model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 602(C).
    2. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    3. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Fatmawati,, 2023. "A fractional mathematical model of heartwater transmission dynamics considering nymph and adult amblyomma ticks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Sheng Bin, 2022. "Construction and Simulation Analysis of Epidemic Propagation Model Based on COVID-19 Characteristics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Addai, Emmanuel & Zhang, Lingling & Ackora-Prah, Joseph & Gordon, Joseph Frank & Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Essel, John Fiifi, 2022. "Fractal-fractional order dynamics and numerical simulations of a Zika epidemic model with insecticide-treated nets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    6. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Okyere, Eric & Yankson, Ernest & Opoku, Alex Akwasi & Adom-Konadu, Agnes & Acheampong, Edward & Arthur, Yarhands Dissou, 2022. "Non-fractional and fractional mathematical analysis and simulations for Q fever," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Agus Suryanto & Isnani Darti & Syaiful Anam, 2017. "Stability Analysis of a Fractional Order Modified Leslie-Gower Model with Additive Allee Effect," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-9, May.
    9. Xin, Li & Xi, Chen & Sagir, Mujgan & Wenbo, Zhang, 2023. "How can infectious medical waste be forecasted and transported during the COVID-19 pandemic? A hybrid two-stage method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Hoang, Manh Tuan, 2022. "Reliable approximations for a hepatitis B virus model by nonstandard numerical schemes," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 32-56.
    11. Marinca, Bogdan & Marinca, Vasile & Bogdan, Ciprian, 2021. "Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Das, Ayan Kumar & Kalam, Sidra & Kumar, Chiranjeev & Sinha, Ditipriya, 2021. "TLCoV- An automated Covid-19 screening model using Transfer Learning from chest X-ray images," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Owolabi, Kolade M. & Atangana, Abdon, 2019. "Mathematical analysis and computational experiments for an epidemic system with nonlocal and nonsingular derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 41-49.
    14. Li, Tingting & Guo, Youming, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    15. Li, Tingting & Guo, Youming, 2022. "Modeling and optimal control of mutated COVID-19 (Delta strain) with imperfect vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier & de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2022. "Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    17. Khan, Aziz & Gómez-Aguilar, J.F. & Saeed Khan, Tahir & Khan, Hasib, 2019. "Stability analysis and numerical solutions of fractional order HIV/AIDS model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 119-128.
    18. Iqbal, Zafar & Ahmed, Nauman & Baleanu, Dumitru & Adel, Waleed & Rafiq, Muhammad & Aziz-ur Rehman, Muhammad & Alshomrani, Ali Saleh, 2020. "Positivity and boundedness preserving numerical algorithm for the solution of fractional nonlinear epidemic model of HIV/AIDS transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Hanthanan Arachchilage, Kalpana & Hussaini, Mohammed Yousuff, 2021. "Ranking non-pharmaceutical interventions against Covid-19 global pandemic using global sensitivity analysis—Effect on number of deaths," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Hajri, Youssra & Allali, Amina & Amine, Saida, 2024. "A delayed deterministic and stochastic SIRICV model: Hopf bifurcation and stochastic analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 98-121.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:14:p:2517-:d:866815. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.