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Stability analysis and numerical simulation of SEIR model for pandemic COVID-19 spread in Indonesia

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  • Annas, Suwardi
  • Isbar Pratama, Muh.
  • Rifandi, Muh.
  • Sanusi, Wahidah
  • Side, Syafruddin

Abstract

The Aim of this research is construct the SEIR model for COVID-19, Stability Analysis and numerical simulation of the SEIR model on the spread of COVID-19. The method used to construct the model is the SEIR model by considering vaccination and isolation factors as model parameters, the analysis of the model uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction numbers and the global stability of the COVID-19 distribution model. Numerical simulation models use secondary data on the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. The results obtained are the SEIR model for COVID-19; model analysis yields global stability from the spread of COVID-19; The results of the analysis also provide information if no vaccine, Indonesia is endemic COVID-19. Then the simulation results provide a prediction picture of the number of COVID-19 in Indonesia in the following days, the simulation results also show that the vaccine can accelerate COVID-19 healing and maximum isolation can slow the spread of COVID-19. The results obtained can be used as a reference for early prevention of the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia

Suggested Citation

  • Annas, Suwardi & Isbar Pratama, Muh. & Rifandi, Muh. & Sanusi, Wahidah & Side, Syafruddin, 2020. "Stability analysis and numerical simulation of SEIR model for pandemic COVID-19 spread in Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304690
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110072
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    Cited by:

    1. Avila-Ponce de León, Ugo & Pérez, Ángel G.C. & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2020. "An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Hanthanan Arachchilage, Kalpana & Hussaini, Mohammed Yousuff, 2021. "Ranking non-pharmaceutical interventions against Covid-19 global pandemic using global sensitivity analysis—Effect on number of deaths," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Gaetano Perone, 2022. "Using the SARIMA Model to Forecast the Fourth Global Wave of Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19: Evidence from 12 Hard-Hit Big Countries," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Mathematical Analysis of SEIR Model to Prevent COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 115858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2022.
    5. Hajri, Youssra & Allali, Amina & Amine, Saida, 2024. "A delayed deterministic and stochastic SIRICV model: Hopf bifurcation and stochastic analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 98-121.
    6. Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier & de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2022. "Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Sheng Bin, 2022. "Construction and Simulation Analysis of Epidemic Propagation Model Based on COVID-19 Characteristics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Das, Ayan Kumar & Kalam, Sidra & Kumar, Chiranjeev & Sinha, Ditipriya, 2021. "TLCoV- An automated Covid-19 screening model using Transfer Learning from chest X-ray images," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Xin, Li & Xi, Chen & Sagir, Mujgan & Wenbo, Zhang, 2023. "How can infectious medical waste be forecasted and transported during the COVID-19 pandemic? A hybrid two-stage method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Yu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Jingmeng & Zhang, Yun & Cong, Xuya & Li, Xiaobo & Mostafa, Almetwally M., 2024. "Mathematical modeling and simulation for COVID-19 with mutant and quarantined strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    11. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    13. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. Nadim, Sk Shahid & Ghosh, Indrajit & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2021. "Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model-based study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    15. Wen-Jing Zhu & Shou-Feng Shen & Wen-Xiu Ma, 2022. "A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-14, July.
    16. Marinca, Bogdan & Marinca, Vasile & Bogdan, Ciprian, 2021. "Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Ma, Weicai & Zhang, Peng & Zhao, Xin & Xue, Leyang, 2022. "The coupled dynamics of information dissemination and SEIR-based epidemic spreading in multiplex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    18. Zhang, Zizhen & Rahman, Ghaus ur & Gómez-Aguilar, J.F. & Torres-Jiménez, J., 2022. "Dynamical aspects of a delayed epidemic model with subdivision of susceptible population and control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    19. Rubayyi T. Alqahtani & Abdelhamid Ajbar, 2021. "Study of Dynamics of a COVID-19 Model for Saudi Arabia with Vaccination Rate, Saturated Treatment Function and Saturated Incidence Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Vashishth, Anil K. & Basaiti, Komal, 2024. "Modeling the effect of non-pharmaceutical measures and vaccination on the spread of two variants of COVID-19 in India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 139-168.

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