IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i23p3697-d1529473.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis Time-Delayed SEIR Model with Survival Rate for COVID-19 Stability and Disease Control

Author

Listed:
  • M. H. Hassan

    (October High Institute for Engineering and Technology, Giza 12596, Egypt
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • Tamer El-Azab

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • Ghada AlNemer

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Sciences, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia)

  • M. A. Sohaly

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • H. El-Metwally

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

Abstract

This paper presents a mathematical model to examine the transmission and stability dynamics of the SEIR model for COVID-19. To assess disease progression, the model incorporates a time delay for the time delay and survival rates. Then, we use the Routh–Hurwitz criterion, the LaSalle stability principle, and Hopf bifurcation analysis to look at disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. We investigate global stability using the Lyapunov function and simulate the model behavior with real COVID-19 data from Indonesia. The results confirm the impact of time delay on disease transmission, mitigation strategies, and population recovery rates, demonstrating that rapid interventions can significantly impact the course of the epidemic. The results indicate that a balance between transmission reduction and vaccination efforts is crucial for achieving long-term stability and controlling disease outbreaks. Finally, we estimate the degree of disease control and look at the rate of disease spread by simulating the genuine data.

Suggested Citation

  • M. H. Hassan & Tamer El-Azab & Ghada AlNemer & M. A. Sohaly & H. El-Metwally, 2024. "Analysis Time-Delayed SEIR Model with Survival Rate for COVID-19 Stability and Disease Control," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:23:p:3697-:d:1529473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3697/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3697/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:23:p:3697-:d:1529473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.