IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i23p3697-d1529473.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis Time-Delayed SEIR Model with Survival Rate for COVID-19 Stability and Disease Control

Author

Listed:
  • M. H. Hassan

    (October High Institute for Engineering and Technology, Giza 12596, Egypt
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • Tamer El-Azab

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • Ghada AlNemer

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Sciences, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia)

  • M. A. Sohaly

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • H. El-Metwally

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

Abstract

This paper presents a mathematical model to examine the transmission and stability dynamics of the SEIR model for COVID-19. To assess disease progression, the model incorporates a time delay for the time delay and survival rates. Then, we use the Routh–Hurwitz criterion, the LaSalle stability principle, and Hopf bifurcation analysis to look at disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. We investigate global stability using the Lyapunov function and simulate the model behavior with real COVID-19 data from Indonesia. The results confirm the impact of time delay on disease transmission, mitigation strategies, and population recovery rates, demonstrating that rapid interventions can significantly impact the course of the epidemic. The results indicate that a balance between transmission reduction and vaccination efforts is crucial for achieving long-term stability and controlling disease outbreaks. Finally, we estimate the degree of disease control and look at the rate of disease spread by simulating the genuine data.

Suggested Citation

  • M. H. Hassan & Tamer El-Azab & Ghada AlNemer & M. A. Sohaly & H. El-Metwally, 2024. "Analysis Time-Delayed SEIR Model with Survival Rate for COVID-19 Stability and Disease Control," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:23:p:3697-:d:1529473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3697/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3697/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Annas, Suwardi & Isbar Pratama, Muh. & Rifandi, Muh. & Sanusi, Wahidah & Side, Syafruddin, 2020. "Stability analysis and numerical simulation of SEIR model for pandemic COVID-19 spread in Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xin, Li & Xi, Chen & Sagir, Mujgan & Wenbo, Zhang, 2023. "How can infectious medical waste be forecasted and transported during the COVID-19 pandemic? A hybrid two-stage method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Marinca, Bogdan & Marinca, Vasile & Bogdan, Ciprian, 2021. "Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Hanthanan Arachchilage, Kalpana & Hussaini, Mohammed Yousuff, 2021. "Ranking non-pharmaceutical interventions against Covid-19 global pandemic using global sensitivity analysis—Effect on number of deaths," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Yu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Jingmeng & Zhang, Yun & Cong, Xuya & Li, Xiaobo & Mostafa, Almetwally M., 2024. "Mathematical modeling and simulation for COVID-19 with mutant and quarantined strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. Rubayyi T. Alqahtani & Abdelhamid Ajbar, 2021. "Study of Dynamics of a COVID-19 Model for Saudi Arabia with Vaccination Rate, Saturated Treatment Function and Saturated Incidence Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Mathematical Analysis of SEIR Model to Prevent COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 115858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2022.
    7. Avila-Ponce de León, Ugo & Pérez, Ángel G.C. & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2020. "An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    10. Nadim, Sk Shahid & Ghosh, Indrajit & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2021. "Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model-based study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    11. Das, Ayan Kumar & Kalam, Sidra & Kumar, Chiranjeev & Sinha, Ditipriya, 2021. "TLCoV- An automated Covid-19 screening model using Transfer Learning from chest X-ray images," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier & de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2022. "Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    14. Hajri, Youssra & Allali, Amina & Amine, Saida, 2024. "A delayed deterministic and stochastic SIRICV model: Hopf bifurcation and stochastic analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 98-121.
    15. Sheng Bin, 2022. "Construction and Simulation Analysis of Epidemic Propagation Model Based on COVID-19 Characteristics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.
    16. Wen-Jing Zhu & Shou-Feng Shen & Wen-Xiu Ma, 2022. "A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-14, July.
    17. Zhang, Zizhen & Rahman, Ghaus ur & Gómez-Aguilar, J.F. & Torres-Jiménez, J., 2022. "Dynamical aspects of a delayed epidemic model with subdivision of susceptible population and control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    18. Gaetano Perone, 2022. "Using the SARIMA Model to Forecast the Fourth Global Wave of Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19: Evidence from 12 Hard-Hit Big Countries," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, April.
    19. Ma, Weicai & Zhang, Peng & Zhao, Xin & Xue, Leyang, 2022. "The coupled dynamics of information dissemination and SEIR-based epidemic spreading in multiplex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    20. Vashishth, Anil K. & Basaiti, Komal, 2024. "Modeling the effect of non-pharmaceutical measures and vaccination on the spread of two variants of COVID-19 in India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 139-168.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:23:p:3697-:d:1529473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.