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Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19

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  • Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier
  • de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce
  • Avila-Vales, Eric

Abstract

In response to the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, several companies across the world have proposed a wide variety of vaccines of different mechanisms of action. As a consequence, a new scenario of multiple imperfect vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 arose. Mathematical modeling needs to consider this complex situation with different vaccines, some of them with two required doses. Using compartmental models we can simplify, simulate and most importantly, answer questions related to the development of the outbreak and the vaccination campaign. We present a model that addresses the current situation of COVID-19 and vaccination. Two important questions were considered in this paper: are more vaccines useful to reduce the spread of the coronavirus? How can we know if the vaccination campaign is sufficient? Two sensitivity criteria are helpful to answer these questions. The first criterion is the Multiple Vaccination Theorem, which indicates whether a vaccine is giving a positive or negative impact on the reproduction number. The second result (Insufficiency Theorem) provides a condition to answer the second question. Finally, we fitted the parameters with data and discussed the empirical results of six countries: Israel, Germany, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Italy, and Lithuania.

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  • Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier & de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2022. "Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:156:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922000558
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Avila-Ponce de León, Ugo & Pérez, Ángel G.C. & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2020. "An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Dun & Wang, Xiao, 2023. "Vaccination strategies and virulent mutation spread: A game theory study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Cai, Junyang & Zhou, Jian, 2022. "How many asymptomatic cases were unconfirmed in the US COVID-19 pandemic? The evidence from a serological survey," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Shi, Lei & Chen, Ziang & Wu, Peng, 2023. "Spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID-19 with nonlocal dispersal in heterogeneous environment: Modeling, analysis and simulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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