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Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain

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  • Li, Tingting
  • Guo, Youming

Abstract

Omicron, a mutant strain of COVID-19, has been sweeping the world since November 2021. A major characteristic of Omicron transmission is that it is less harmful to healthy adults, but more dangerous for people with underlying disease, the elderly, or children. To simulate the spread of Omicron in the population, we developed a new 9-dimensional mathematical model with high-risk and low-risk exposures. Then we analyzed its dynamic properties and obtain the basic reproduction number R0. With the data of confirmed cases from March 1, 2022 published on the official website of Shanghai, China, we used the weighted nonlinear least square estimation method to estimate the parameters, and get the basic reproduction number R0≈1.5118. Finally, we considered three control measures (isolation, detection and treatment), and studied the optimal control strategy and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model. The control strategy G is determined to be the optimal control strategy from the purpose of making fewer people infected. In strategy G, the three human control measures contain six control variables, and the control strength of these variables needs to be varied according to the pattern shown in Figure 11, so that the number of infections can be minimized and the percentage of reduction of infections can reach more than 95%.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Tingting & Guo, Youming, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:606:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122007014
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.128134
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