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Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China

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  • Meng, Lina
  • Peng, Lu
  • Zhou, Yinggang

Abstract

To ease pressure from the aging population, the Chinese government implemented a two-child policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single-child family in 2014. Using this policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that housing booms inhibit the potential desire for more children. A one-standard-deviation increase in the housing price-income ratio decreases the probability of migrant couples’ intention to have a second child by 7.69%, with the effect being concentrated on renters. Housing booms affect couples’ desired fertility through negative income and high opportunity cost channels. (JEL code: R31, J13, J38).

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  • Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:101:y:2023:i:c:s0166046223000558
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103920
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing boom; Two-child policy; Fertility intension; Income effect; Opportunity cost;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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