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Do House Prices Affect Fertility Behavior in China? An Empirical Examination

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  • William A. V. Clark
  • Daichun Yi
  • Xin Zhang

Abstract

The article provides findings for China that are consistent with the studies that document a negative relationship between the cost of housing and fertility. Although some studies have questioned the negative relationship between housing market prices and fertility, overall the evidence from this large sample study in China suggests that the original interpretation of a negative relationship is still viable. The research uses data from the China Household Finance Survey between 2013 and 2017 to show that there is an approximately 0.94-percentage-point decrease in the probability of having a child under two with a 1 percent increase in housing prices. The article provides instrumental models to account for endogeneity. The results are robust across city levels and by wife’s age. The negative effect is significant in the thirty-five large cities in China but not significant for other smaller cities.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. V. Clark & Daichun Yi & Xin Zhang, 2020. "Do House Prices Affect Fertility Behavior in China? An Empirical Examination," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 423-449, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:43:y:2020:i:5:p:423-449
    DOI: 10.1177/0160017620922885
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yiqing Xing & Clifford Silver Tarimo & Weicun Ren & Liang Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Health Insurance Policy on the Fertility Intention of Rural Floating Population in China: Empirical Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Xiaotian Zhang & Xiaoyun Liu & Yang Wang & Lulin Zhou & Xiaoran Cheng, 2022. "Sustainable Development of China’s Maternity Insurance System in the Context of Population Policy Changes: Using a Grounded Theory Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Ermanno Affuso & Khandokar Istiak & James Swofford, 2022. "Interest Rates, House Prices, Fertility, and the Macroeconomy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Chen, Nana & Xu, Hangtian, 2021. "Why has the birth rate relatively increased in China's wealthy cities?," MPRA Paper 105960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Qiang He & Xin Deng & Chuan Li & Zhongcheng Yan & Yanbin Qi, 2022. "The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Xiaoyin Li & John V. Winters, 2024. "Fertility divergence across large and small areas," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), June.
    8. Yu Yang & Rongxin He & Ning Zhang & Liming Li, 2023. "Second-Child Fertility Intentions among Urban Women in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    10. Lu Wang & Rose Gilroy, 2021. "The Role of Housing in Facilitating Middle-Class Family Practices in China: A Case Study of Tianjin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-11, November.
    11. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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