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Effects of the One-Child Family Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai

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  • Ahn, Namkee

Abstract

This paper uses the proportional hazards model to assess the effect of the Chinese one-child policy on second and third births. The differential effects of the policy between the urban and rural areas and by the sex of previous children are highlighted. First, the urban-rural differentials have increased much after the policy, suggesting a more rapid increase in the costs of children and stricter government controls in the urban areas. Second, the sex of children has become a more important factor after the policy. The considerably higher risks to a subsequent birth among sonless families indicate the persistent strong son preference among Chinese parents, especially in less developed areas. Although son preferences seem suppressed in Shanghai, the higher risks to a second birth after the death of a son compared to a daughter are indicative of the son preferences even in Shanghai. Relaxation of the one-child policy may increase the Chinese fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahn, Namkee, 1994. "Effects of the One-Child Family Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 63-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:7:y:1994:i:1:p:63-78
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    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Yuxin, 2017. "Essays on economics of language and family economics," Other publications TiSEM 0093bc8e-e869-4f87-8ff8-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Junsen Zhang, 2017. "The Evolution of China's One-Child Policy and Its Effects on Family Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 141-160, Winter.
    3. Anderson, Gordon & Leo, Teng Wah, 2013. "An empirical examination of matching theories: The one child policy, partner choice and matching intensity in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 468-489.
    4. Wang, Xuebo & Zhang, Junsen, 2018. "Beyond the Quantity–Quality tradeoff: Population control policy and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 222-234.
    5. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2008. "The quantity-Quality trade-Off of children In a developing country: Identification using chinese twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 223-243, February.
    6. James Kai-sing Kung, 2006. "Do Secure Land Use Rights Reduce Fertility? The Case of Meitan County in China," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(1), pages 36-55.
    7. Kuhn, Britta & Neusius, Thomas, 2022. "Will China's three-child policy defuse the demographic time bomb?," wifin Working Paper Series 14/2022, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin).
    8. Lee, Yiu-fai Daniel, 2008. "Do families spend more on boys than on girls? Empirical evidence from rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 80-100, March.
    9. Sung Hyo Hong & Ryan Sullivan, 2016. "The Effects Of Subsidies For Childbearing On Migration And Fertility: Evidence From Korea," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-16, September.
    10. Yi Chen & Hanming Fang, 2018. "The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign," NBER Working Papers 25041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2005. "The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences," Discussion Papers 00019, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    12. Chen, Yi & Huang, Yingfei, 2018. "The Power of the Government: China's Family Planning Leading. Group and the Fertility Decline since 1970," GLO Discussion Paper Series 204, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Ding, Weili & Zhang, Yuan, 2014. "When a son is born: The impact of fertility patterns on family finance in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 192-208.
    14. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Andrew Francis-Tan & Zheng Mu, 2019. "Racial Revolution: Understanding the Resurgence of Ethnic Minority Identity in Modern China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(5), pages 733-769, October.
    16. Ziqi Wang & Ziyao Huang & Jingjing Cai, 2023. "Does the One-Child Policy Improve Chinese Human Capital? A Propensity Score Matching Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-24, August.

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