IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/7721.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do higher rents discourage fertility? evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Simon, Curtis
  • Tamura, Robert

Abstract

This paper documents the existence of a negative cross-sectional correlation between the price of living space and fertility using U.S. Census data over the period 1940-2000. This correlation is not spurious, nor does it reflect the tendency of larger families to locate within less-expensive areas of a given metropolitan area. We examine the extent to which the results reflect the sorting of married couples across metropolitan areas on desired fertility. The relationship between the unit price of living space and fertility in fact tends to be more negative for households that have moved recently. However, the probability of migration between metropolitan areas is smaller for larger families, even those originating in more expensive cities. Moreover, Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests reveal only limited evidence of endogeneity. The weaker effects of the price of living space for less mobile couples seems to be at least in part a result of their choosing to live in less-expensive portions within a given metropolitan area.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon, Curtis & Tamura, Robert, 2008. "Do higher rents discourage fertility? evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000," MPRA Paper 7721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7721
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7721/1/MPRA_paper_7721.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haurin, Donald R. & Brasington, David, 1996. "School Quality and Real House Prices: Inter- and Intrametropolitan Effects," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 351-368, December.
    2. Naz, Ghazala & Nilsen, Øivind Anti & Vagstad, Steinar, 2002. "Education and completed fertility in Norway," Working Papers in Economics 18/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    3. Brueckner, Jan K. & Largey, Ann G., 2008. "Social interaction and urban sprawl," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, July.
    4. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    5. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    6. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    7. Gianna Claudia Giannelli & Chiara Monfardini, 2003. "Joint decisions on household membership and human capital accumulation of youths. The role of expected earnings and local markets," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 265-285, May.
    8. DiPasquale, Denise, 1999. "Why Don't We Know More about Housing Supply?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 9-23, January.
    9. Jonathan Guryan, 2004. "Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 919-943, September.
    10. Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-369, October.
    11. Schultz, T. Paul, 1993. "Demand for children in low income countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 349-430, Elsevier.
    12. Margo, Robert A., 1996. "The Rental Price of Housing in New York City, 1830–1860," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 605-625, September.
    13. Haurin, Donald R & Hendershott, Patric H & Kim, Dongwook, 1993. "The Impact of Real Rents and Wages on Household Formation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 284-293, May.
    14. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1986. "Household formation, housing prices, and public policy impacts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 145-164, July.
    15. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2000. "Power Couples: Changes in the Locational Choice of the College Educated, 1940–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1287-1315.
    16. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, Decembrie.
    17. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226740867 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Francisco Covas & J.M.C. Santos Silva, 2000. "A modified hurdle model for completed fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 173-188.
    19. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, June.
    20. Ermisch, John, 1999. "Prices, Parents, and Young People's Household Formation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 47-71, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William A.V. Clark, 2012. "Do women delay family formation in expensive housing markets?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(1), pages 1-24.
    2. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353, June.
    3. Anthony Yezer & William Larson & Weihua Zhao, 2018. "An Examination of the Link between Urban Planning Policies and the High Cost of Housing and Labor," Working Papers 2018-6, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    4. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli, 2011. "Leaving home and housing prices. The experience of Italian youth emancipation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1101, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    5. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    6. John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2013. "Through the Crisis," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 27(2), pages 124-143, May.
    7. Donald R. Haurin & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2007. "The Influence of Household Formation on Homeownership Rates Across Time and Race," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 411-450, December.
    8. Bento, Antonio M. & Franco, Sofia F. & Kaffine, Daniel, 2011. "Is there a double-dividend from anti-sprawl policies?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-152, March.
    9. Laura Cavalli & Alessandro Bucciol & Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Nicola Sartor & Alessandro Sommacal, 2012. "Modelling life-course decisions for the analysis of interpersonal and intrapersonal redistribution," Working Papers 25/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    10. Christopoulou, Rebekka & Pantalidou, Maria, 2022. "The parental home as labor market insurance for young Greeks during the Great Recession," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 313-350, September.
    11. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. Krupka, Douglas J., 2008. "On Amenities, Natural Advantage and Agglomeration," IZA Discussion Papers 3598, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ritashree Chakrabarti & Junfu Zhang, 2010. "Unaffordable housing and local employment growth," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 10-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis, 2017. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms, And Economic Growth: International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(7), pages 1601-1672, October.
    15. Büchel, Konstantin & Ehrlich, Maximilian v., 2020. "Cities and the structure of social interactions: Evidence from mobile phone data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    16. Bo Feng & Mark Partridge & Mark Rembert, 2018. "The Perils of Modelling How Migration Responds to Climate Change," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roger R. Stough & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien (ed.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets, chapter 0, pages 53-75, Springer.
    17. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2009. "The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 983-1028, December.
    18. Kirdan Lees, 2019. "Quantifying the costs of land use regulation: evidence from New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 245-269, September.
    19. Rogers, William H. & Winkler, Anne E., 2014. "How Did the Housing and Labor Market Crises Affect Young Adults' Living Arrangements?," IZA Discussion Papers 8568, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Kahn, Matthew E. & Walsh, Randall, 2015. "Cities and the Environment," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 405-465, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price of space; fertility; metropolitan areas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.