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Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education

Author

Listed:
  • Endale Kebede

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Anne Goujon

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Wolfgang Lutz

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract

Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa have, over the past decade, been corrected upwards because in a number of countries, the earlier declining trends in fertility stalled around 2000. While most studies so far have focused on economic, political, or other factors around 2000, here we suggest that in addition to those period effects, the phenomenon also matched up with disruptions in the cohort trends of educational attainment of women after the postindependence economic and political turmoil. Disruptions likely resulted in a higher proportion of poorly educated women of childbearing age in the late 1990s and early 2000s than there would have been otherwise. In addition to the direct effects of education on lowering fertility, these less-educated female cohorts were also more vulnerable to adverse period effects around 2000. To explore this hypothesis, we combine individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 18 African countries with and without fertility stalls, thus creating a pooled dataset of more than two million births to some 670,000 women born from 1950 to 1995 by level of education. Statistical analyses indicate clear discontinuities in the improvement of educational attainment of subsequent cohorts of women and stronger sensitivity of less-educated women to period effects. We assess the magnitude of the effect of educational discontinuity through a comparison of the actual trends with counterfactual trends based on the assumption of no education stalls, resulting in up to half a child per woman less in 2010 and 13 million fewer live births over the 1995–2010 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Endale Kebede & Anne Goujon & Wolfgang Lutz, 2019. "Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(8), pages 2891-2896, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:116:y:2019:p:2891-2896
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Murat, Marina, 2021. "Emigration and development. What are the links?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 747, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen & Stephan Klasen, 2022. "Slow-downs of fertility decline: When should we call it a 'fertility stall'?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(26), pages 737-766.
    3. Endale Kebede, 2019. "The Relative Importance of Female Education on Fertility Desires in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multi-Level Analysis," VID Working Papers 1909, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    4. Wolfgang Lutz, 2020. "Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 63-70.
    5. Edward Kwabena Ameyaw & Eugene Budu & Francis Sambah & Linus Baatiema & Francis Appiah & Abdul-Aziz Seidu & Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, 2019. "Prevalence and determinants of unintended pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: A multi-country analysis of demographic and health surveys," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Marina Murat, 2020. "Emigration and development. What are the links?," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0181, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    7. Ashira Menashe‐Oren & Philippe Bocquier, 2021. "Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 639-663, September.
    8. Joerg Baten & Michiel de Haas & Elisabeth Kempter & Felix Meier zu Selhausen, 2021. "Educational Gender Inequality in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Long‐Term Perspective," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 813-849, September.
    9. Ann Garbett & Brienna Perelli‐Harris & Sarah Neal, 2021. "The Untold Story of 50 Years of Adolescent Fertility in West Africa: A Cohort Perspective on the Quantum, Timing, and Spacing of Adolescent Childbearing," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(1), pages 7-40, March.
    10. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    11. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    12. Aniema Atorudibo, 2021. "Marriage Norms and Fertility Outcomes in Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 2101, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Caroline Krafft & Elizabeth Kula & Maia Sieverding, 2021. "An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(19), pages 605-652.
    14. Marina Murat, 2020. "Emigration and development. What are the links?," Department of Economics 0181, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

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