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The Effect Of House Price On Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong

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  • JUNJIAN YI
  • JUNSEN ZHANG

Abstract

This article extends a standard Beckerian model of fertility behavior to formulate the effect of house price (HP) on fertility. The simple model predicts a negative effect of HP on the number of children for a representative household not only through the income effect but also through the compensated substitution effect. The prediction is confirmed by a cointegration analysis applied to the annual data at the aggregate level covering the period from 1971 to 2005 in Hong Kong. It is found that a 1% increase in HP is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative measures of TFRs. This implies that high HP inflation can account for about 65% of the fertility decrease in Hong Kong in the past four decades. (JEL J13, J11, C32)

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  • Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2010. "The Effect Of House Price On Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 635-650, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:48:y:2010:i:3:p:635-650
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00213.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Zhang, Yan & Li, Baoli, 2023. "The housing status and two-child fertility willingness of floating population: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 247-266.
    3. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    4. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    5. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    6. Chenghua Jin & Zhonggao Chen, 2024. "Housing Inclusion Perspective: The Causal Structure of Housing Cost Burden, Fertility Intentions, and Social Housing in Urban China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Nana Chen & Hangtian Xu & Yang Xu, 2024. "Family planning and fertility inequality: Evidence from the abolition of China's one‐child policy," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 86-117, March.
    8. Pei-Syuan Lin & Chin-Oh Chang & Tien Foo Sing, 2016. "Do housing options affect child birth decisions? Evidence from Taiwan," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3527-3546, December.
    9. Bo Malmberg, 2012. "Fertility Cycles, Age Structure and Housing Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 467-482, November.
    10. Rufei Guo & Qian Wang & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2022. "Housing prices and son preference: Evidence from China’s housing reform," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 421-446, July.
    11. Liu, Jing & Xing, Chunbing & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "House price, fertility rates and reproductive intentions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Creina Day & Ross S. Guest, 2014. "The Effect of Gender Wages and Working Age Populations on Fertility and House Prices," Crawford School Research Papers 1401, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Kelvin K. C. Seah, 2018. "The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    15. Chen, Nana & Xu, Hangtian, 2021. "Why has the birth rate relatively increased in China's wealthy cities?," MPRA Paper 105960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Xiao-Cui Yin & Chi-Wei Su, 2021. "House Prices and China's Birth Rate - A Note," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-4.
    17. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Yew, Siew Ling, 2022. "Local crime and fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 312-331.
    18. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Yi, Junjian & Zhang, Bo, 2019. "House prices and marriage entry in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 118-130.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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