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Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Bloom

    (Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA)

  • Michael Kuhn

    (Economic Frontiers Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Klaus Prettner

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

High-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to (a) describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, (b) assess its potential economic consequences, (c) discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, (d) propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impacts of low fertility, and (e) draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:16:y:2024:p:159-184
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic consequences of population decline; below-replacement fertility; low fertility; depopulation; long-run economic growth; economic policies to address low fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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