Revisiting the Link Between Electrification and Fertility: Evidence from the Early 20th Century United States

The decline in fertility occurring throughout the first half of the 20th century in the United States and preceding the baby boom remains largely unexplored. This paper presents empirical and theoretical evidence linking this decline to the spread of electricity. Using data on early electrification e˙orts, I empirically disentangle two channels linking electrification and fertility: the introduction of time-saving appliances that reduce the time needed for child-rearing; and the rise in female wages which raises the opportunity cost of childcare. I then use these empirical estimates to calibrate a model that features both channels and quantifies the aggregate impact of electrification on fertility. I find that electrification explains 3.1% of the overall fertility decline in 1900–1940 in the US, corresponding to a magnitude of 0.047 fewer children born to each woman, and that this decline is driven by young childless women who can reap the labor market gains of electricity.