IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v207y2021ics0951832020308401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic multi-agent approach for modeling the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios in chemical plants

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Chao
  • Reniers, Genserik
  • Khakzad, Nima

Abstract

In the chemical industry, multi-hazard (toxic, flammable, and explosive) materials such as acrylonitrile are stored, transported, and processed in large quantities. A release of multi-hazard materials can simultaneously or sequentially lead to acute toxicity, fire and explosion. The spatial-temporal evolution of hazards may also result in cascading effects. In this study, a dynamic methodology called “Dynamic Graph Monte Carlo†(DGMC) is developed to model the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios and assess the vulnerability of humans and installations exposed to such hazards. In the DGMC model, chemical plants are modeled as a multi-agent system with three kinds of agents: hazardous installations, ignition sources, and humans while considering the uncertainties and interdependencies among the agents and their impacts on the evolution of hazards and possible escalation effects. A case study is analyzed using the DGMC methodology, demonstrating that the risk can be underestimated if the spatial-temporal evolution of multi-hazard scenarios is neglected. Vapor cloud explosion (VCEs) may lead to more severe damage than fire, and the safety distances which are implemented only based on fire hazards are not sufficient to prevent from the damage of VCEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "A dynamic multi-agent approach for modeling the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios in chemical plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107349
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020308401
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107349?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stroeve, Sybert H. & Blom, Henk A.P. & Bakker, G.J. (Bert), 2013. "Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 133-149.
    2. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    3. Misuri, Alessio & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Quddus, Noor & Cozzani, Valerio, 2019. "Lessons learnt from the impact of hurricane Harvey on the chemical and process industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Abbassi, Rouzbeh & Khan, Faisal, 2016. "Vulnerability analysis of process plants subject to domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 127-136.
    5. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2015. "Using graph theory to analyze the vulnerability of process plants in the context of cascading effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 63-73.
    7. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    8. Galbusera, Luca & Trucco, Paolo & Giannopoulos, Georgios, 2020. "Modeling interdependencies in multi-sectoral critical infrastructure systems: Evolving the DMCI approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Chen, Chao & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Dynamic vulnerability assessment of process plants with respect to vapor cloud explosions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. Olivar, Oscar J. Ramírez & Mayorga, Santiago Zuluaga & Giraldo, Felipe Muñoz & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Pinelli, Jean-Paul & Salzano, Ernesto, 2020. "The effects of extreme winds on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Georgiadou, Paraskevi S. & Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Kiranoudis, Chris T. & Markatos, Nikolaos C., 2007. "Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1388-1402.
    12. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Probabilistic Petri-net addition enabling decision making depending on situational change: The case of emergency response to fuel tank farm fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Lixing & Chen, Guohua & Zheng, Mianbin & Gao, Xiaoming & Luo, Chennan & Rao, Xiaohui, 2024. "Agent-based modeling methodology and temporal simulation for Natech events in chemical clusters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Li, Guoqi & Pu, Gang & Yang, Jiaxin & Jiang, Xinguo, 2024. "A multidimensional quantitative risk assessment framework for dense areas of stay points for urban HazMat vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. Li, Xin & Chen, Chao & Hong, Yi-du & Yang, Fu-qiang, 2023. "Exploring hazardous chemical explosion accidents with association rules and Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    4. Liu, Jinbiao & Tan, Lingling & Ma, Yaping, 2024. "An integrated risk assessment method for urban areas due to chemical leakage accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    5. Lan, Meng & Gardoni, Paolo & Qin, Rongshui & Zhang, Xiao & Zhu, Jiping & Lo, Siuming, 2022. "Modeling NaTech-related domino effects in process clusters: A network-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Mocellin, Paolo & Pilenghi, Lisa, 2023. "Semi-quantitative approach to prioritize risk in industrial chemical plants aggregating safety, economics and ageing: A case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Tan, Xinxin & Xiao, Shenbin & Yang, Yu & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Chao, 2024. "An agent-based resilience model of oil tank farms exposed to earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    8. Gholamizadeh, Kamran & Zarei, Esmaeil & Yazdi, Mohammad & Ramezanifar, Ehsan & Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei, 2024. "A hybrid model for dynamic analysis of domino effects in chemical process industries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Li, Qilin & Wang, Yang & Chen, Wensu & Li, Ling & Hao, Hong, 2024. "Machine learning prediction of BLEVE loading with graph neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Mingfei Hu & Xinyi Hu & Zhenzhou Deng & Bing Tu, 2022. "Fault Diagnosis of Tennessee Eastman Process with XGB-AVSSA-KELM Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, April.
    11. Marroni, Giulia & Casini, Leonardo & Bartolucci, Andrea & Kuipers, Sanneke & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2024. "Development of fragility models for process equipment affected by physical security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    12. Li, Xiaofeng & Chen, Guohua & Amyotte, Paul & Khan, Faisal & Alauddin, Mohammad, 2023. "Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    13. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    14. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Gholamizadeh, Kamran & Zarei, Esmaeil & Yazdi, Mohammad & Ramezanifar, Ehsan & Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei, 2024. "A hybrid model for dynamic analysis of domino effects in chemical process industries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Li, Xiaofeng & Chen, Guohua & Amyotte, Paul & Khan, Faisal & Alauddin, Mohammad, 2023. "Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A goal programming approach to multi-objective optimization of firefighting strategies in the event of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    7. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    8. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    9. Lan, Meng & Gardoni, Paolo & Qin, Rongshui & Zhang, Xiao & Zhu, Jiping & Lo, Siuming, 2022. "Modeling NaTech-related domino effects in process clusters: A network-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    10. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    11. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    12. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    14. Lin Xie & Mary Ann Lundteigen & Yiliu Liu, 2020. "Reliability and barrier assessment of series–parallel systems subject to cascading failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 455-469, June.
    15. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2020. "A novel approach for domino effects modeling and risk analysis based on synergistic effect and accident evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    16. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2019. "Low-capacity utilization of process plants: A cost-robust approach to tackle man-made domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Tan, Xinxin & Xiao, Shenbin & Yang, Yu & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Chao, 2024. "An agent-based resilience model of oil tank farms exposed to earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    18. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    19. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.
    20. Chen, Chao & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Dynamic vulnerability assessment of process plants with respect to vapor cloud explosions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.