IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v138y2015icp263-272.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures

Author

Listed:
  • Khakzad, Nima

Abstract

A domino effect is a low frequency high consequence chain of accidents where a primary accident (usually fire and explosion) in a unit triggers secondary accidents in adjacent units. High complexity and growing interdependencies of chemical infrastructures make them increasingly vulnerable to domino effects. Domino effects can be considered as time dependent processes. Thus, not only the identification of involved units but also their temporal entailment in the chain of accidents matter. More importantly, in the case of domino-induced fires which can generally last much longer compared to explosions, foreseeing the temporal evolution of domino effects and, in particular, predicting the most probable sequence of accidents (or involved units) in a domino effect can be of significance in the allocation of preventive and protective safety measures. Although many attempts have been made to identify the spatial evolution of domino effects, the temporal evolution of such accidents has been overlooked. We have proposed a methodology based on dynamic Bayesian network to model both the spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects and also to quantify the most probable sequence of accidents in a potential domino effect. The application of the developed methodology has been demonstrated via a hypothetical fuel storage plant.

Suggested Citation

  • Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:138:y:2015:i:c:p:263-272
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.02.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832015000526
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2015.02.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Matellini, D.B. & Wall, A.D. & Jenkinson, I.D. & Wang, J. & Pritchard, R., 2013. "Modelling dwelling fire development and occupancy escape using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 75-91.
    3. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2013. "Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 5-17.
    4. Kohda, Takehisa & Cui, Weimin, 2007. "Risk-based reconfiguration of safety monitoring system using dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1716-1723.
    5. Montani, S. & Portinale, L. & Bobbio, A. & Codetta-Raiteri, D., 2008. "Radyban: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 922-932.
    6. Marquez, David & Neil, Martin & Fenton, Norman, 2010. "Improved reliability modeling using Bayesian networks and dynamic discretization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 412-425.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mi, Jinhua & Li, Yan-Feng & Yang, Yuan-Jian & Peng, Weiwen & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2016. "Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Wu Jun & Yang Hui & Cheng Yuan, 2015. "Domino Effect Analysis, Assessment and Prevention in Process Industries," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 3(6), pages 481-498, December.
    3. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2013. "Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 5-17.
    4. Zhang, Haoyuan & Marsh, D. William R, 2021. "Managing infrastructure asset: Bayesian networks for inspection and maintenance decisions reasoning and planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Yan-Feng Li & Jinhua Mi & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Dynamic fault tree analysis based on continuous-time Bayesian networks under fuzzy numbers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(6), pages 530-541, December.
    6. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    7. Guo, Qingjun & Amin, Shohel & Hao, Qianwen & Haas, Olivier, 2020. "Resilience assessment of safety system at subway construction sites applying analytic network process and extension cloud models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    8. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C. & Ariffin, A.K. & Singh, S.S., 2021. "Evidence based risk analysis of fire and explosion accident scenarios in FPSOs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Matellini, D.B. & Wall, A.D. & Jenkinson, I.D. & Wang, J. & Pritchard, R., 2013. "Modelling dwelling fire development and occupancy escape using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 75-91.
    10. Dante B Matellini & Alan D Wall & Ian D Jenkinson & Jin Wang & Robert W Pritchard, 2013. "A study of human reaction during the initial stages of a dwelling fire using a Bayesian network model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(2), pages 207-221, April.
    11. Noroozi, Alireza & Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & MacKinnon, Scott & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2013. "The role of human error in risk analysis: Application to pre- and post-maintenance procedures of process facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 251-258.
    12. Zhang, Limao & Wu, Xianguo & Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. & Zhong, Jingbing & Lu, Yujie, 2014. "Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 29-39.
    13. Aalirezaei, Armin & Kabir, Dr. Golam & Khan, Md Saiful Arif, 2023. "Dynamic predictive analysis of the consequences of gas pipeline failures using a Bayesian network," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Hong, Bingyuan & Shao, Bowen & Guo, Jian & Fu, Jianzhong & Li, Cuicui & Zhu, Baikang, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian network risk probability evolution for third-party damage of natural gas pipelines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    15. Cai, Baoping & Liu, Yonghong & Liu, Zengkai & Tian, Xiaojie & Dong, Xin & Yu, Shilin, 2012. "Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 32-41.
    16. Nima Khakzad, 2018. "Which Fire to Extinguish First? A Risk‐Informed Approach to Emergency Response in Oil Terminals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1444-1454, July.
    17. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2015. "Using graph theory to analyze the vulnerability of process plants in the context of cascading effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 63-73.
    18. Amir Masoud Mirhosseini & S. Adib Nazari & A. Maghsoud Pour & S. Etemadi Haghighi & M. Zareh, 2019. "Probabilistic failure analysis of hot gas path in a heavy-duty gas turbine using Bayesian networks," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(5), pages 1173-1185, October.
    19. KIM, Junyung & ZHAO, Xingang & SHAH, Asad Ullah Amin & KANG, Hyun Gook, 2021. "System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    20. D. B. Matellini & A. D. Wall & I. D. Jenkinson & J. Wang & R. Pritchard, 2018. "A Three‐Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(10), pages 2087-2104, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:138:y:2015:i:c:p:263-272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.