IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v81y2023ics092753712300012x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on post-great recession entrants: Evidence from Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Osuna-Gomez, Daniel

Abstract

I study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the formal employment of entrants from each post-Great Recession year. Using longitudinal Mexican social security records and an individual fixed effects difference-in-differences design, I find that the pandemic caused entrants from each post-Great Recession year to lose formal employment at higher rates than individuals who joined the formal sector before them. This gap is narrowing as the economy recovers. My results are explained by differences in firm-specific tenure and pre-pandemic wages, not by geographical variations in hysteresis from the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Osuna-Gomez, Daniel, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on post-great recession entrants: Evidence from Mexico," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:81:y:2023:i:c:s092753712300012x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102337
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092753712300012X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102337?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    2. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    3. Kenneth A. Couch & Robert W. Fairlie & Huanan Xu, 2022. "The evolving impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on gender inequality in the US labor market: The COVID motherhood penalty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 485-507, April.
    4. Ori Heffetz & Daniel Reeves, 2020. "Measuring Unemployment in Crisis: Effects of COVID-19 on Potential Biases in the CPS," NBER Working Papers 28310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    6. Marco Caliendo & Ricarda Schmidl, 2016. "Youth unemployment and active labor market policies in Europe," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
    7. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    8. Chatterji Pinka & Li Yue, 2023. "Recovery from the COVID-19 Recession: Uneven Effects among Young Workers?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 821-842, July.
    9. Angelucci, Manuela & Angrisani, Marco & Bennett, Daniel M & Kapteyn, Arie & Schaner, Simone G., 2020. "Remote Work and the Heterogeneous Impact of COVID-19 on Employment and Health," IZA Discussion Papers 13620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    11. Joseph G. Altonji & Robert A. Shakotko, 1987. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(3), pages 437-459.
    12. Titan Alon & Matthias Doepke & Jane Olmstead-Rumsey & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_163, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    13. Andy Snell & Pedro Martins & Heiko Stüber & Jonathan P. Thomas, 2018. "Bias in Returns to Tenure When Firm Wages and Employment Comove: A Quantitative Assessment and Solution," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 47-74.
    14. Mark Borgschulte & Paco Martorell, 2018. "Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 101-127, July.
    15. Santiago Levy & Luis F López-Calva, 2020. "Persistent Misallocation and the Returns to Education in Mexico," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(2), pages 284-311.
    16. Albagli, Elías & Contreras, Gabriela & Tapia, Matías & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2022. "Earnings cyclicality of new and continuing jobs: The role of tenure and transition length," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Benjamin Cowan & Kairon Shayne Garcia, 2021. "How Has Covid-19 Affected Young Workers?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(04), pages 08-14, July.
    18. Leyva Gustavo & Mora Israel, 2021. "How High (Low) are the Possibilities of Teleworking in Mexico?," Working Papers 2021-15, Banco de México.
    19. Bacher-Hicks, Andrew & Goodman, Joshua & Mulhern, Christine, 2021. "Inequality in household adaptation to schooling shocks: Covid-induced online learning engagement in real time," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Katharine G. Abraham & James L. Medoff, 1984. "Length of Service and Layoffs in Union and Nonunion Work Groups," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 38(1), pages 87-97, October.
    21. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-688, August.
    22. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Firm-specific Capital and Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1246-1260, December.
    23. Ronald BACHMANN & Rahel FELDER, 2018. "Job stability in Europe over the cycle," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(3), pages 481-518, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alex Rivadeneira & Carlo Alcaraz & Nicolás Amoroso & Rodolfo Oviedo & Brenda Samaniego & Horacio Sapriza, 2024. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2024-16, Banco de México.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Osuna Gómez Daniel, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Post-Great Recession Formal Entrants: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2022-19, Banco de México.
    2. Jaime Arellano-Bover, 2024. "Career Consequences of Firm Heterogeneity for Young Workers: First Job and Firm Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 549-589.
    3. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    4. Galindo da Fonseca, João Alfredo & Gallipoli, Giovanni & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2020. "Match quality and contractual sorting," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    6. Joe Piacentini & Harley Frazis & Peter B. Meyer & Michael Schultz & Leo Sveikauskas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets and Inequality," Economic Working Papers 551, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    7. Jesse Rothstein, 2023. "The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post-Great Recession Entrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(5), pages 1452-1479.
    8. I. Sebastian Buhai & Coen N. Teulings, 2014. "Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 245-258, April.
    9. Kamila Cygan-Rehm, 2022. "Lifetime Consequences of Lost Instructional Time in the Classroom: Evidence from Shortened School Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 9892, CESifo.
    10. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2439-2483 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Gabriel Burdin, 2023. "Employee Owned Firms and the Careers of Young Workers," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 113, Bank of Lithuania.
    12. Gopi Shah Goda & Emilie Jackson & Lauren Hersch Nicholas & Sarah See Stith, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 on older workers’ employment and Social Security spillovers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 813-846, April.
    13. Mikel Bedayo & Raquel Vegas & Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró, 2020. "Screening and Loan Origination Time: Lending Standards, Loan Defaults and Bank Failures," Working Papers 1215, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Poutvaara, Panu & Schikora, Felicitas, 2023. "First time around: Local conditions and multi-dimensional integration of refugees," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Parent, Daniel, 1996. "Survol des contributions théoriques et empiriques liées au capital humain," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 72(3), pages 315-356, septembre.
    16. Nicole Bosch & Bas ter Weel, 2013. "Labour-market outcomes of older workers in the Netherlands: Measuring job prospects using the occupational age structure," CPB Discussion Paper 234.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    18. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    19. VILHUBERT, Lars, 1999. "Wage Flexibility and Contract Structure in Germany," Cahiers de recherche 9905, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    20. Elisa Failache, 2023. "Taking advantage of COVID-19? Online learning, descentralization and tertiary education," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    21. H. Naci Mocan & Deborah Viola, 1997. "The Determinants of Child Care Workers' Wages and Compensation: Sectoral Differences, Human Capital, Race, Insiders and Outsiders," NBER Working Papers 6328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; Post-great recession entrants; Formal markets; Tenure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:81:y:2023:i:c:s092753712300012x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.