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Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-sectional Data Set

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  • Schwandt, Hannes
  • von Wachter, Till

Abstract

This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions especially for less advantaged entrants that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from Census data.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwandt, Hannes & von Wachter, Till, 2018. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-sectional Data Set," CEPR Discussion Papers 13222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13222
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market conditions at graduation; Long-term cost of recession; Poverty; Social programs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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