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The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post-Great Recession Entrants

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  • Jesse Rothstein

Abstract

I study cohort patterns in the labor market outcomes of recent college graduates, examining changes surrounding the Great Recession. Recession entrants have lower wages and employment than those of earlier cohorts; more recent cohorts’ employment is even lower, but the newest entrants’ wages have risen. I relate these changes to “scarring” effects of initial conditions. I demonstrate that adverse early conditions permanently reduce new entrants’ employment probabilities. I also replicate earlier results of medium-term scarring effects on wages that fade out by the early 30s. But scarring cannot account for the employment collapse for recent cohorts. There was a dramatic negative structural break in college graduates’ employment rates, beginning around the 2005 entry cohort, that shows no sign of abating.

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  • Jesse Rothstein, 2023. "The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post-Great Recession Entrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(5), pages 1452-1479.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:58:y:2023:i:5:p:1452-1479
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.58.5.0920-11206R1
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    8. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
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    10. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
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    12. Richard J. Paulsen, 2022. "Arts majors and the Great Recession: a cross-sectional analysis of educational choices and employment outcomes," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 46(4), pages 635-658, December.
    13. Aucejo, Esteban M. & French, Jacob & Ugalde Araya, Maria Paola & Zafar, Basit, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Ege Aksu & Sidhya Balakrishnan & Eric Bettinger & Jonathan S. Hartley & Michael S. Kofoed & Dubravka Ritter & Douglas A. Webber, 2024. "Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection"," Working Papers 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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