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Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment

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  • Borgschulte, Mark

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Martorell, Paco

    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

This paper provides revealed-preference estimates of the monetary value of avoiding job search in a high-unemployment labor market by examining the behavior of military servicemembers deciding between reenlisting and exiting the military. We find that servicemembers would sacrifice 1.5-2% in earnings in exchange for avoiding a one percentage point increase in the home-state unemployment rate. Comparing these estimates to realized losses in post-service civilian earnings resulting from exiting the military during times of high unemployment suggests that mitigating factors (e.g., leisure, private and public transfers) offset less than one-third of the earnings losses caused by entering a weak labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Borgschulte, Mark & Martorell, Paco, 2016. "Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 9680, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9680
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    2. Glaser, Darrell J. & Rahman, Ahmed S., 2023. "Between the dockyard and the deep blue sea—Retention and personnel economics in the Royal Navy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Sandra E. Black & Jeffrey T. Denning & Lisa J. Dettling & Sarena Goodman & Lesley J. Turner, 2023. "Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3357-3400, December.
    4. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2019. "Beveridgean Unemployment Gap," Papers 1911.05271, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    6. Alexandre Mas & Amanda Pallais, 2019. "Labor Supply and the Value of Non-work Time: Experimental Estimates from the Field," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 111-126, June.
    7. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    8. Lucas Finamor, 2022. "Labor market conditions and college graduation: evidence from Brazil," Papers 2201.11047, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    9. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2022. "u^* = \sqrt{uv}," Papers 2206.13012, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    10. Jesse Rothstein, 2023. "The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post-Great Recession Entrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(5), pages 1452-1479.
    11. ASAI Yukiko & Dmitri K. KOUSTAS, 2021. "Temporary Work Contracts and Female Labor Market Outcomes," Discussion papers 21071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Michael S. Kofoed & Wyatt J. Frasier, 2019. "[Job] Locked and [Un]loaded: The Effect of the Affordable Care Act Dependency Mandate on Reenlistment in the U.S. Army," Upjohn Working Papers 19-300, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    13. Brian Duncan & Hani Mansour & Bryson Rintala, 2019. "Weighing The Military Option: The Effects Of Wartime Conditions On Investments In Human Capital," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 264-282, January.
    14. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo & Ghosh, Priyasmita & Medina-Cortina, Eduardo, 2023. "Long-lasting effects of a depressed labor market: Evidence from Mexico after the great recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Osuna-Gomez, Daniel, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on post-great recession entrants: Evidence from Mexico," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor market entry; welfare cost of business cycles; military reenlistment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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