IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2024-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Rivadeneira
  • Carlo Alcaraz
  • Nicolás Amoroso
  • Rodolfo Oviedo
  • Brenda Samaniego
  • Horacio Sapriza

Abstract

We study the real effects of credit supply shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. To this end, we merge administrative micro-level data on the universe of bank loans to firms with matched employer-employee social security records. For each firm, we measure its exposure to time-varying credit supply shocks. We find that a negative credit shock of one standard deviation would have increased a firm's exit probability by 0.15 percentage points (pp) and decreased its annual employment growth by 1 pp. These effects were most pronounced among unincorporated businesses, small and young firms, and those in non-essential sectors. Negative credit supply shocks led to higher separation rates for workers with low layoff costs, like those with low tenure or temporary contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Rivadeneira & Carlo Alcaraz & Nicolás Amoroso & Rodolfo Oviedo & Brenda Samaniego & Horacio Sapriza, 2024. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2024-16, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7BDFA9FE50-8521-0964-9F46-E8C67EEDE6C7%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; credit supply shocks; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.