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Multiscale effects masked the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity demand in the United States

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  • Burleyson, Casey D.
  • Rahman, Aowabin
  • Rice, Jennie S.
  • Smith, Amanda D.
  • Voisin, Nathalie

Abstract

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

Suggested Citation

  • Burleyson, Casey D. & Rahman, Aowabin & Rice, Jennie S. & Smith, Amanda D. & Voisin, Nathalie, 2021. "Multiscale effects masked the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity demand in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:304:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921010631
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2022. "A new approach to modeling cycles with summer and winter demand peaks as input variables for deep neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Salaheddin Malkawi & Suhil Kiwan & Sajedah Alzghoul, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 Response Measures on Electricity Sector in Jordan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Abbas, Khizar & Han, Mengyao & Xu, Deyi & Butt, Khalid Manzoor & Baz, Khan & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhu, Yongguang & Hussain, Sanwal, 2024. "Exploring synergistic and individual causal effects of rare earth elements and renewable energy on multidimensional economic complexity for sustainable economic development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    5. Ku, Arthur Lin & Qiu, Yueming (Lucy) & Lou, Jiehong & Nock, Destenie & Xing, Bo, 2022. "Changes in hourly electricity consumption under COVID mandates: A glance to future hourly residential power consumption pattern with remote work in Arizona," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).

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