IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v293y2024ics0360544224004110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fractional-order long-term price guidance mechanism based on bidirectional prediction with attention mechanism for electric vehicle charging

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Likun
  • Cao, Yi
  • Yin, Linfei

Abstract

As the infiltration rate of renewable energy generation (REG) is increasing, the power balance of power systems needs to be maintained urgently. Electric vehicle (EV) as a widely distributed demand-side flexibility resource can be utilized to address the supply-demand balance of the power system. Current EV charging management strategies do not consider user-side demand flexibility and cannot accurately guide users to charge. To address the problem that EV charging demand cannot be accurately directed, this study proposes a fractional-order long-term price guidance mechanism (FLPGM) for EV charging with a bidirectional prediction based on an attention mechanism (AM). The FLPGM combines an AM with a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) and a long-short term memory (LSTM) and applies a high-precision fractional-order stochastic dynamic differentiation method that considers the effects of community health index, EV types, commuting distance, holidays, and power status on charging demand. FLPGM can equate customer charging demand with REG and reduce the cost of charging to customers, resulting in a balance between supply and demand in a long-term electricity market environment. In this study, FLPGM is applied to an electric vehicle charging model (EVCM) for experiments. The test results show that: the charging load of EVs under the FLPGM matches the energy supply by 98.85%; the EVCM under the FLPGM has a charging cost of only 67.61% of the cost in the natural state and can save 79.93% of the potential savings; the EVCM under the FLPGM maintains the balance between supply and demand while reducing charging costs for users, maximizing the benefits for all parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Likun & Cao, Yi & Yin, Linfei, 2024. "Fractional-order long-term price guidance mechanism based on bidirectional prediction with attention mechanism for electric vehicle charging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:293:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224004110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130639
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224004110
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.130639?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yin, WanJun & Qin, Xuan, 2022. "Cooperative optimization strategy for large-scale electric vehicle charging and discharging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    2. Zhou, Guangzhao & Guo, Zanquan & Sun, Simin & Jin, Qingsheng, 2023. "A CNN-BiGRU-AM neural network for AI applications in shale oil production prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    3. Zhang, Chao & Yin, Wanjun & Wen, Tao, 2024. "An advanced multi-objective collaborative scheduling strategy for large scale EV charging and discharging connected to the predictable wind power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    4. Zang, Haixiang & Xu, Ruiqi & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Liu, Ling & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2021. "Residential load forecasting based on LSTM fusing self-attention mechanism with pooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    5. Oosthuizen, Anna Maria & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Thopil, George Alex, 2022. "The relationship between renewable energy and retail electricity prices: Panel evidence from OECD countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    6. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    7. Li, Yanbin & Zhang, Feng & Li, Yun & Wang, Yuwei, 2021. "An improved two-stage robust optimization model for CCHP-P2G microgrid system considering multi-energy operation under wind power outputs uncertainties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    9. Kaur, Amrit Pal & Singh, Mukesh, 2023. "Time-of-Use tariff rates estimation for optimal demand-side management using electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    10. Lv, Zhihan & Wang, Nana & Lou, Ranran & Tian, Yajun & Guizani, Mohsen, 2023. "Towards carbon Neutrality: Prediction of wave energy based on improved GRU in Maritime transportation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    11. Singh, Bharat & Kumar, Ashwani, 2023. "Optimal energy management and feasibility analysis of hybrid renewable energy sources with BESS and impact of electric vehicle load with demand response program," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    12. Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers based on stochastic differential methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    13. Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    15. Cai, Qiran & Xu, Qingyang & Qing, Jing & Shi, Gang & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2022. "Promoting wind and photovoltaics renewable energy integration through demand response: Dynamic pricing mechanism design and economic analysis for smart residential communities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    16. Dai, Xiaoran & Liu, Guo-Ping & Hu, Wenshan, 2023. "An online-learning-enabled self-attention-based model for ultra-short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    17. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke & Sun, Lijie & Li, Mingyu & Xu, Xiaomin, 2023. "A novel framework for ultra-short-term interval wind power prediction based on RF-WOA-VMD and BiGRU optimized by the attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    18. Dehghan, Hamed & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza, 2022. "A simulation-based optimization model to determine optimal electricity prices under various scenarios considering stakeholders’ objectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    19. Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Neural network dynamic differential control for long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    20. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    21. Du, Wenyi & Ma, Juan & Yin, Wanjun, 2023. "Orderly charging strategy of electric vehicle based on improved PSO algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    22. Yang, Wangwang & Shi, Jing & Li, Shujian & Song, Zhaofang & Zhang, Zitong & Chen, Zexu, 2022. "A combined deep learning load forecasting model of single household resident user considering multi-time scale electricity consumption behavior," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    23. Wan, Anping & Chang, Qing & AL-Bukhaiti, Khalil & He, Jiabo, 2023. "Short-term power load forecasting for combined heat and power using CNN-LSTM enhanced by attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    24. Welzel, Fynn & Klinck, Carl-Friedrich & Pohlmann, Yannick & Bednarczyk, Mats, 2021. "Grid and user-optimized planning of charging processes of an electric vehicle fleet using a quantitative optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    25. Zhu, Yansong & Liu, Jizhen & Hu, Yong & Xie, Yan & Zeng, Deliang & Li, Ruilian, 2024. "Distributionally robust optimization model considering deep peak shaving and uncertainty of renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    26. Shao, Zhen & Yang, Yudie & Zheng, Qingru & Zhou, Kaile & Liu, Chen & Yang, Shanlin, 2022. "A pattern classification methodology for interval forecasts of short-term electricity prices based on hybrid deep neural networks: A comparative analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jianguo & Han, Lincheng & Zhang, Xiuyu & Wang, Yingzhou & Zhang, Shude, 2023. "Electrical load forecasting based on variable T-distribution and dual attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    2. Ehsani, Behdad & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Charlin, Laurent, 2024. "Price forecasting in the Ontario electricity market via TriConvGRU hybrid model: Univariate vs. multivariate frameworks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    3. Wu, Han & Liang, Yan & Gao, Xiao-Zhi & Du, Pei, 2024. "Auditory-circuit-motivated deep network with application to short-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    5. Meng, Weiqi & Song, Dongran & Huang, Liansheng & Chen, Xiaojiao & Yang, Jian & Dong, Mi & Talaat, M., 2024. "A Bi-level optimization strategy for electric vehicle retailers based on robust pricing and hybrid demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    6. Wang, Shuangxin & Shi, Jiarong & Yang, Wei & Yin, Qingyan, 2024. "High and low frequency wind power prediction based on Transformer and BiGRU-Attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Chen, Xu & Li, Mince & Chen, Zonghai, 2023. "Meta rule-based energy management strategy for battery/supercapacitor hybrid electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    8. Ling, Jihong & Zhang, Bingyang & Dai, Na & Xing, Jincheng, 2023. "Coupling input feature construction methods and machine learning algorithms for hourly secondary supply temperature prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    9. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "A new methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering power quality disturbance dimension reduction and elimination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    10. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
    11. Xu, Huifeng & Hu, Feihu & Liang, Xinhao & Zhao, Guoqing & Abugunmi, Mohammad, 2024. "A framework for electricity load forecasting based on attention mechanism time series depthwise separable convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    12. Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Seman, Laio Oriel & Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Mariani, Viviana Cocco, 2024. "Enhancing wind speed forecasting through synergy of machine learning, singular spectral analysis, and variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    13. Mark Kipngetich Kiptoo & Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi & Masahiro Furukakoi & Paras Mandal & Tomonobu Senjyu, 2023. "Integrated Multi-Criteria Planning for Resilient Renewable Energy-Based Microgrid Considering Advanced Demand Response and Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-25, September.
    14. Gonçalves, Rui & Ribeiro, Vitor Miguel & Pereira, Fernando Lobo, 2023. "Variable Split Convolutional Attention: A novel Deep Learning model applied to the household electric power consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    15. Nie, Ying & Li, Ping & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Lifang, 2024. "A novel multivariate electrical price bi-forecasting system based on deep learning, a multi-input multi-output structure and an operator combination mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    16. Sharma, Abhishek & Jain, Sachin Kumar, 2022. "A novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    17. Liu, Hong & Yang, Luoxiao & Zhang, Bingying & Zhang, Zijun, 2023. "A two-channel deep network based model for improving ultra-short-term prediction of wind power via utilizing multi-source data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    18. Meng, Anbo & Zhang, Haitao & Dai, Zhongfu & Xian, Zikang & Xiao, Liexi & Rong, Jiayu & Li, Chen & Zhu, Jianbin & Li, Hanhong & Yin, Yiding & Liu, Jiawei & Tang, Yanshu & Zhang, Bin & Yin, Hao, 2024. "An adaptive distribution-matched recurrent network for wind power prediction using time-series distribution period division," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    19. Loizidis, Stylianos & Kyprianou, Andreas & Georghiou, George E., 2024. "Electricity market price forecasting using ELM and Bootstrap analysis: A case study of the German and Finnish Day-Ahead markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    20. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:293:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224004110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.