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Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets

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  • Barry K. Goodwin
  • Ted C. Schroeder

Abstract

Vector autoregressions are used to evaluate dynamic relationships among prices in six important international wheat markets. The effects of freight rates and exchange rates are also considered. The results indicate that Canada is the dominant market, supporting views that Canada is an oligopolistic price leader.
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Suggested Citation

  • Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1991. "Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(2), pages 237-254, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:39:y:1991:i:2:p:237-254
    DOI: j.1744-7976.1991.tb03570.x
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    1. John Spriggs & Michael Kaylen & David Bessler, 1982. "The Lead-Lag Relationship between Canadian and U.S. Wheat Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(3), pages 569-572.
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    7. Bessler, David A & Babula, Ronald A, 1987. "Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 397-406, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco, 2014. "A global VAR model for the analysis of wheat export prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. G. Solomon Osho, 2019. "A General Framework for Time Series Forecasting Model Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-ARIMA and Transfer Functions," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Stiegert, Kyle W. & Wang, Shinn-Shyr, 2003. "Imperfect Competition And Strategic Trade Theory: What Have We Learned," Working Papers 14589, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    5. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 265-275, October.
    6. Goodwin, Barry K. & Smith, Vincent H., 2009. "Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustment in U.S. Wheat Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    8. Kadir Eryigit & Suleyman Karaman, 2011. "Testing for spatial market integration and law of one price in Turkish wheat markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1519-1530, October.
    9. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    10. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, 2023. "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    11. Cho, Gyu D., 1992. "Weekly Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 321343, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. V. Jyothi Gali & C.G. Brown, 2002. "Price relationships in the Queensland barley market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 181-196.
    13. Jian Yang & Jin Zhang & David J. Leatham, 2003. "Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 37-50, May.
    14. Nigatu, Getachew & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The U.S. Role in the Price Determination of Major Agricultural Commodities," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250119, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2006. "Market Delineation and Price Leadership in the World Wheat Market: A Cointegration Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 311-326, October.
    16. Ubilava, David, 2014. "The ENSO Effect on World Wheat Market Dynamics: Smooth Transitions in Asymmetric Price Transmission," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170223, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    18. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Stiegert, Kyle W., 2006. "Evidence on Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Theory," Staff Papers 12609, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    19. Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Chaudhary, Jagadanand, 2003. "Price Dynamics In The U.S. Fiber Markets:Its Implications For Cotton Industry," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35071, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Xu, Miao & Orden, David, 2002. "Exchange Rate Effects On Canadian/U.S. Agricultural Prices," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19886, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Vangelis Tsioumas & Stratos Papadimitriou, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between freight markets and commodity prices revealed," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(2), pages 267-279, June.
    22. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2021. "Semi-parametric models of spatial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2335-2361, November.
    23. Gali, Jyothi & Brown, Colin G., 2000. "Analysis Of Integration Between Queensland Feed And Malting Barley Markets," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123649, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    24. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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