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Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

Perron's test, Johansen cointegration analysis, and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are used to identify structural change, as well as to examine price dynamics in the U.S. and Canadian hard red spring (HRS) and durum wheat markets. It is found that, due to the U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP), price instability experienced in June 1986 has resulted in structural changes for Canadian HRS and durum prices. We also find that Canadian prices have significant effects on the determination of the U.S. prices in the North American wheat market.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:10217
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.10217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Ghoshray, Atanu & Lloyd, Tim A., 2003. "Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    9. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
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