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Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

This study examines price dynamics in the U.S. and Canadian hard red spring (HRS) and durum wheat markets. Using monthly prices for 1979-2002, we adopt Johansen cointegration tests and a vector error-correction (VEC) model. The results show that U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and Canadian HRS are exogenous in the model consisting of U.S. HRW and HRS and Canadian HRS prices. Canadian durum is exogenous in the model of U.S. and Canadian durum prices. Therefore, the results suggest that the HRW exporting industry and Canada have been the price leader in North American wheat markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19353, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19353
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19353
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    1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    2. Ghoshray, Atanu & Lloyd, Tim A., 2003. "Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Samarendu Mohanty & Suchada Langley, 2003. "The Effects of Various Policy Regimes in the Integration of North American Grain Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 51(1), pages 109-120, March.
    5. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

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