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Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium

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  • Klaus Prettner
  • David Canning

Abstract

We analytically assess the effects of changes in longevity on the interest rate, the consumption-savings behavior, and the optimal retirement decision within a dynamic general equilibrium setting. We derive a simple sufficient condition for which the optimal retirement age always increases with life expectancy. Numerical assessment reveals that for realistic parameter values that reflect the situation in industrialized countries, the optimal retirement age indeed increases with life expectancy and the sufficient condition tends to be fulfilled. Together with the fact that the actual retirement age did not increase in industrialized countries over the last decades, while there have been large improvements in longevity, this leads us to conclude that strong monetary and institutional incentives for early retirement exist and these counteract the effects of increasing life expectancy. Our policy conclusion is that the retirement age should be partially linked to life expectancy and that incentives for early retirement should be removed. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2014. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(1), pages 191-217, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:56:y:2014:i:1:p:191-217
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-013-0776-9
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    1. Chen, Brian K. & Jalal, Hawre & Hashimoto, Hideki & Suen, Sze-chuan & Eggleston, Karen & Hurley, Michael & Schoemaker, Lena & Bhattacharya, Jay, 2016. "Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 42-51.
    2. Mercedes Gumbau Albert, 2021. "The impact of health status and human capital formation on regional performance: Empirical evidence," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 123-139, February.
    3. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
    4. Michael Kuhn & Alexia Prskawetz & Uwe Sunde, 2014. "Health, education, and retirement over the prolonged life cycle: a selective survey of recent research," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    6. Bae, Se Yung & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun & Park, Kyunghyun, 2020. "Social insurance for the elderly," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 274-299.
    7. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Trade and productivity: The family connection redux," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 276-291.
    8. Miyoshi, Yoshiyuki & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2017. "Growth effects of annuities and government transfers in perpetual youth models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-6.
    9. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Ben J. Heijdra & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Putting People Back into the Picture: Some Studies in Demographic Economics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 147-152, June.
    11. Ben J. Heijdra & Laurie S. M. Reijnders, 2016. "Human Capital Accumulation and the Macroeconomy in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 297-334, September.
    12. Heijdra, Ben J. & Reijnders, Laurie S. M., 2018. "Longevity shocks with age-dependent productivity growth," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 200-230, April.
    13. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Kalk, Andrei, 2021. "Why do we postpone annuity purchases?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Edouard Ribes, 2022. "Financial planning & optimal retirement timing for physically intensive occupations," Working Papers hal-03219182, HAL.
    16. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    17. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    18. Nicolas Drouhin, 2018. "Theoretical considerations on the retirement consumption puzzle and the optimal age of retirement," Working Papers halshs-01767096, HAL.
    19. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    20. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    21. Edouard A. Ribes, 2022. "Financial planning and optimal retirement timing for physically intensive occupations," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-28, August.
    22. Junkee Jeon & Hyeng Keun Koo & Yong Hyun Shin & Zhou Yang, 2021. "An Integral Equation Representation for Optimal Retirement Strategies in Portfolio Selection Problem," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 885-914, October.
    23. Bong-Gyu Jang & Hyeng Keun Koo & Yuna Rhee, 2016. "Asset demands and consumption with longevity risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 587-633, August.
    24. Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous retirement; Life-cycle savings; Increasing longevity; Population aging; J11; J26; O41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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