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The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model

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  • Tiloka de Silva
  • Silvana Tenreyro

Abstract

Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.

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  • Tiloka de Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 77-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:77-109
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180296
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aksoy, Yunus & Zoega, Gylfi, 2020. "Fertility changes and replacement migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Sun, Tianyu & Wei, Sichao, 2022. "Longer parental time and lower fertility rate," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    4. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Pascaline Dupas & Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Pauline Rossi, 2024. "The Negligible Effect of Free Contraception on Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso," NBER Working Papers 32427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Delventhal, Matthew J. & Guner, Nezih, 2021. "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 16708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Haydn Washington & Helen Kopnina, 2022. "Discussing the Silence and Denial around Population Growth and Its Environmental Impact. How Do We Find Ways Forward?," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    9. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    11. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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