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Longevity and technological change

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  • Gehringer, Agnieszka
  • Prettner, Klaus

Abstract

We analyze the impact of increasing longevity on technological progress within an R&D-based endogenous growth framework and test the model's implications on OECD data from 1960 to 2011. The central hypothesis derived in the theoretical part is that - by raising the incentives of households to invest in physical capital and in R&D - decreasing mortality positively impacts upon technological progress and thereby also on productivity growth. The empirical results clearly confirm the theoretical prediction which implies that the ongoing demographic changes in industrialized economies are not necessarily detrimental to economic prosperity, at least as far as technological progress and productivity growth are concerned.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Longevity and technological change," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 01/2014, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuweco:012014
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    Cited by:

    1. Abeliansky, Ana & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 310, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    4. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Population Growth and Automation Density: Theory and CrossCountry Evidence," VID Working Papers 2102, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Davis, Colin & Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Tabata, Ken, 2022. "Demographic structure, knowledge diffusion, and endogenous productivity growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    7. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Koichi Futagami & Kunihiko Konishi, 2019. "Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 591-620, April.
    10. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Xiaomeng Zhang & Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu, 2022. "Aging and automation in economies with search frictions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 621-642, April.
    12. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    13. Tscheuschner, Paul, 2021. "Endogenous life expectancy and R&D-based economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2021, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    14. Kufenko, Vadmin & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "You can't always get what you want? A Monte Carlo analysis of the bias and the efficiency of dynamic panel data estimators," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 07/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    15. Irmen, Andreas & Litina, Anastasia, 2022. "Population Aging And Inventive Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1127-1161, July.
    16. Shuyu Li & Qiang Wang & Rongrong Li, 2024. "How aging impacts environmental sustainability—insights from the effects of social consumption and labor supply," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Ben J. Heijdra & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Putting People Back into the Picture: Some Studies in Demographic Economics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 147-152, June.
    18. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    19. Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Macro-level efficiency of health expenditure: Estimates for 15 major economies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Change; Longevity; Productivity; Technological Progress; Economic Prosperity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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