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Content
2009, Issue 13
- 4-6 Review of Adam Gordon’s Book Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change
by David Orrell - 7-12 Forecasting Sharp Changes
by Roy Batchelor - 13-22 The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains
by John Mello - 24-33 Forecastability: Insights from Physics, Graphical Decomposition, and Information Theory
by Peter M. Catt - 34-40 Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability
by John Boylan - 41-45 How to Assess Forecastability
by Stephan Kolassa - 46-50 The U.S. National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”
by Ira Sohn
2009, Issue 12
- 1-43 Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán - 5-13 The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning
by Alec Finney & Martin Joseph - 14-20 Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People
by Tom Wallace & Bob Stahl - 21-22 Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies
by John Mello - 23-25 Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies
by Joseph McConnell - 26-32 Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach
by Peter Sephton - 33-35 New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts
by Paul Goodwin - 36-40 Percentage Error: What Denominator?
by Kesten Geeen & Len Tashman - 41-42 Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote
by Andreas Graefe & J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred G. Cuzán & Randall J. Jones, Jr.
2008, Issue 11
- 4-5 Book Review of Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres
by Roy Batchelor - 6-14 Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy?
by Stephen Kolassa - 15-20 Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study
by Robert Rieg - 21-23 Commentary on Benchmarking
by Teresa McCarthy & Donna Davis & Susan Golicic & John Mentzer - 24-25 Commentary on Benchmarking
by Jim Hoover - 26-36 Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects
by Ian Watson-Jones - 37-40 Commentaries on Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects
by Patrick Wader & Mark A. Moon - 41-42 Regression Model Forecasts of the U. S. Presidential Election
by Randall Jones, Jr. & Alfred Cuzan - 43-49 Software Review of Forecast Pro Unlimited: An Off-the-Shelf Solution for Large-Volume Forecasting
by Ulrich Kusters & Janko Thyson
2008, Issue 10
- 5-7 The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction
by Paul Fields - 9-14 Looking at Tomorrow Today: The What, Why, and How of Futuring for Forecasters
by Roy Pearson - 15-22 Lessons Learned: Reflections from 25 Years as a Forecasting Consultant
by Antonio García-Ferrer - 23-27 Life-Cycle Forecasting for New Products: The HP Approach to Forecasting Printer Demand
by Jerry Shan & Matthew Reimann & Fereydoon Safai - 29-34 Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán - 35-37 A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting
by Paul Goodwin - 38-40 Should We Define Forecast Error as E = F - A Or E = A - F?
by Kesten Green & Len Tashman
2008, Issue 9
- 5-7 Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning
by Roy Batchelor - 8-10 Predicting the Demand for New Products
by Paul Goodwin - 12-17 The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies
by Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan - 18-24 Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers
by Bruce Andrews & James Bennett & Lindsey Howe & Brooks Newkirk & Joseph Ogrodowczyk - 25-29 Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry
by Carol Gebert - 30-32 Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation
by Andreas Graefe - 33-35 A Primer on Prediction Markets
by Joe Miles - 36-41 Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages
by Sam Sugiyama - 43-48 “Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections
by Ira Sohn
2007, Issue 8
- 1-28 Lost Sales and Customer Service
by Scott Roy - 5-10 Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies
by Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin - 11-16 A Guide to Delphi
by Gene Rowe - 17-20 Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
by Kesten Green & J. Scott Armstrong & Andreas Graefe - 22-24 Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight
by John Boylan - 25-26 Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error
by Thomas R. Willemain - 26-27 Supply Risk and Costing Challenges
by Michael E. Smith - 29-30 Reply to “Cost of Forecast Error” Commentaries
by Peter M. Catt - 31-35 How to Project Patient Persistency
by Ka Lok Lee & Peter Fader & Bruce Hardie - 36-40 The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by Allan J. Lichtman - 41-44 Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series
by Enrique de Alba & Manuel Mendoza - 45-46 Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
by Bill Bassin
2007, Issue 7
- 5-10 Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error: A Practical Example
by Peter Maurice Catt - 11-16 An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors
by Roy Pearson - 17-22 Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations
by Lauge Valentin - 23-27 S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company
by John Mello & Terry Esper - 29-35 Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues
by Stephen Custer & Don Miller - 36-40 How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data
by Ellen Bonnell - 41-44 The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process
by James Borneman - 45-48 Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century
by Jim Hoover - 49-51 Book Review of Forecasting the Retail Supply Chain, by Andre Martin, Mike Doherty, and Jeff Harrop
by Carolyn Allmon - 53-55 Supermarket Forecasting: Check Out Three New Approaches
by Paul Goodwin
2007, Issue 6
- 3-10 Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster
by Chris Chatfield - 12-15 Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models
by Rob J. Hyndman & Andrey V. Kostenko - 16-20 Forecasting Short Seasonal Time Series Using Aggregate and Analogous Series
by Michael Leonard - 21-23 Seasonality Shrinkage Procedures for Small Samples
by Dan Williams - 24-25 Constant vs. Changing Seasonality
by Philip Hans Franses - 26-28 Hot New Research: Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training, and Information Sharing
by Paul Goodwin - 29-37 Forecast Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation
by Sam Sugiyama - 38-39 Book Review of Kenneth Kahn's New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach
by Steven Schnaars - 40-43 Advantages of the MAD/Mean Ratio over the MAPE
by Stephan Kolassa & Wolfgang Schütz - 45-50 Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives
by Carl E. Klarner & Stan Buchanan
2006, Issue 5
- 3-8 Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?
by J. Scott Armstrong - 16-21 To Include or Exclude an Explanatory Variable: Beware of Rules of Thumb
by Peter Kennedy - 27-31 Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts
by Rogelio Oliva & Noel Watson - 32-36 How to Predict a Movie's Success at the Box Office
by Ramesh Sharda & Dursun Delen - 37-42 A Retrospect on Forecasting Midterm Elections to the U. S. House of Representatives
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzan - 43-44 Software Reviews: Forecasting with SAP
by Ulrich Kusters - 45-50 The New SAP Forecasting and Replenishment Solution: Is It an Improvement over mySAP ERP?
by Norman Gotz & Carsten Kohler - 51-54 Forecasting for WorldWide Supply Chain Processes with SAP's APO
by Christoph Seeger
2006, Issue 4
- 6-10 Nano Forecasting: Forecasting Techniques for Short-Time Intervals
by Jay Minnucci - 11-15 Forecasting Call Flow in a Direct Marketing Environment
by Peter Varisco - 16-18 Forecasting Weekly Effects of Recurring Irregular Occurrences
by Dan Rickwalder - 21-25 Transformation Lessons from Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.: Managing the Introduction of a Structured Forecast Process
by Simon Clarke - 26-30 Breaking Down the Barriers to Forecast Process Improvement
by Mark Moon - 32-35 Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Omissions in Today's Forecasting Engines and Demand-Planning Software
by Jim Hoover - 36-38 Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demands: Look at the Entire Distribution of Demands
by Tom Willemain - 39-42 Accuracy and Accuracy Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand
by John Boylan & Aris Syntetos - 43-46 Another Look at Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demand
by Rob J. Hyndman - 47-52 Lessons from Thomas Edison's Technological and Social Forecasts
by Steven Schnaars - 53-56 Tips for Forecasting Semi-new products
by Bill Tonetti - 57-59 Book Review of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2204)
by Anirvan Banerji
2006, Issue 3
- 5-9 Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by Allan Lichtman - 10-13 The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred Cuzan - 16-21 Measuring the Efficiency of an Informal Forecasting Process
by Robert Samohyl - 22-26 Forecasting as a Business Process Diagnostic
by Mario Sepulveda-Guzman & Michael Smith & George Mechling - 27-32 Increasing the Credibility of Your Forecasts: 7 Suggestions
by Roy Pearson - 33-37 Credit Scoring: The State of the Art
by Lyn Thomas - 39-43 Incorrect Nonlinear Trend Curves in Excel
by Rick Hesse, - 44-45 The Unreliability of Excel's Statistical Procedures
by Bruce McCullough - 46-47 On the Use and Abuse of Microsoft Excel
by Paul Fields - 48-50 Book Review of Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market, by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett (1999)
by Roy Batchelor
2005, Issue 2
- 6-11 Six Steps to Overcome Bias in the Forecast Process
by Elaine Deschamps - 12-15 The Impact of Corporate Culture on Sales Forecasting
by John Mello - 16-17 How to Assess the Effect of Organizational Politics on the Efficiency of the Forecasting Process
by Michael Gilliland - 24-26 Managerial Judgment: Best as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process
by Rob Dhuyvetter - 27-32 My Life as Soothsayer: 25 Years of Forecasting at British Telecom
by Clive Mason - 33-36 To Include or Not to Include an Explanatory Variable: That is the Question
by William Bassin - 37-43 A Primer on Forecasting with Neural Networks
by Roy Batchelor - 44-47 Demand Works Express 3.5: Filling a Gap in the Demand Planning Software Spectrum
by Jim Hoover - 48-49 Book Review of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment: How to Create a Supply Chain Advantage (Dirk Seifert, 2003)
by Paul Goodwin - 50-52 The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
by Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong
2005, Issue 1
- 8-12 How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts
by Paul Goodwin - 13-17 Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts
by Dilek Onkal & M. Sinan Gonul - 18-20 Relative Merits of Different Ways of Combining Judgment with Statistical Forecasts
by Nigel Harvey - 24-28 The Sales Forecasting Evolution at Brooks Sports
by Thomas Ross - 29-35 The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy
by J. Scott Armstrong - 36-42 Intermittent and Lumpy Demand: A Forecasting Challenge
by John Boylan - 43-46 Case Study: Integrating Consumer Demand to Improve Shipments Forecasts
by Charles W. Chase, Jr. - 47-49 How to Evaluate the Forecasting Ability of Demand-Planning Software
by Jim Hoover - 49-50 Book Review of Demand Management Best Practices by Colleen Crum with George Palmatier (2003)
by Nada Sanders - 51-52 How We Computed the Pollyvote
by Alfred Cuzan & J. Scott Armstrong & Randall J. Jones, Jr.