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Accuracy and Accuracy Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand

Author

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  • John Boylan
  • Aris Syntetos

Abstract

John and Aris distinguish between forecase-accuracy metrics, which measure the errors resulting from a forecast method, and accuracy-implication metrics, which measure the achievement of the organization's stockholding and service-level goals. Both measurements are important. The correct choice of a forecast-accuracy metric depends on the organization's inventory rules, and on whether accuracy is to be gauged for a single item or across a range of items, The authors recommend specific accuracy and accuracy-implication metrics for each context. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006

Suggested Citation

  • John Boylan & Aris Syntetos, 2006. "Accuracy and Accuracy Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 4, pages 39-42, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:39-42
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    Cited by:

    1. Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E., 2010. "Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: The case of inventory forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 134-143, January.
    2. Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E. & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 72-81, March.
    3. Tliche, Y. & Taghipour, A. & Canel-Depitre, B., 2019. "Downstream Demand Inference in decentralized supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 65-77.
    4. Ali, Mohammad M. & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, Aris A., 2012. "Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 830-841.
    5. Zhu, Sha & Jaarsveld, Willem van & Dekker, Rommert, 2020. "Spare parts inventory control based on maintenance planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
    7. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Trapero, Juan R. & Cardós, Manuel & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2019. "Quantile forecast optimal combination to enhance safety stock estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 239-250.
    10. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    11. Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Patriarca, Riccardo & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Spare parts management for irregular demand items," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 57-66.
    12. Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias, 2013. "Forecasting the optimal order quantity in the newsvendor model under a correlated demand," MPRA Paper 44189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. A A Syntetos & M Z Babai & Y Dallery & R Teunter, 2009. "Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(5), pages 611-618, May.
    14. Ali, Mohammad M. & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, A.A., 2017. "Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 984-994.
    15. Kolassa, Stephan, 2016. "Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 788-803.
    16. Altay, Nezih & Narayanan, Arunachalam, 2022. "Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1234-1244.
    17. Altay, Nezih & Rudisill, Frank & Litteral, Lewis A., 2008. "Adapting Wright's modification of Holt's method to forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 389-408, February.
    18. J E Boylan & A A Syntetos & G C Karakostas, 2008. "Classification for forecasting and stock control: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(4), pages 473-481, April.

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