IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/for/ijafaa/y2008i10p29-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review

Author

Listed:
  • Randall J. Jones, Jr.
  • Alfred G. Cuzán

Abstract

With the November 2008 U.S. presidential election looming, Randall and Alfred describe the enduring forecasting models that have been created by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual. The most stable models since 1996 have consistently forecast the election winner, with an average error of less than 3%. While not all of the players have issued their forecasts for this year’s final vote, the models suggest that the outlook for the Republican Party is negative. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán, 2008. "Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 10, pages 29-34, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:29-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2008. "Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies," MPRA Paper 9829, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:29-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Gilliland (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.