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Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Graefe
  • J. Scott Armstrong
  • Alfred G. Cuzán
  • Randall J. Jones, Jr.

Abstract

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46.6% (as of the end of November). In his Hot New Research column in this issue, Paul Goodwin discusses the benefits of combining forecasts. The success of the Pollyvote should further enhance interest is this approach to forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Graefe & J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred G. Cuzán & Randall J. Jones, Jr., 2009. "Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 12, pages 41-42, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:41-42
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    Cited by:

    1. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzan, Alfred G., 2017. "Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts," MPRA Paper 83282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
    3. Graefe, Andreas, 2019. "Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 & 2017," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 868-877.

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