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Forecasting Sharp Changes

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  • Roy Batchelor

Abstract

Batchelor concludes we have learned yet again just how bad we are at forecasting sharp and hard-to-reverse changes in economic conditions. The linear models that perform well most of the time aren’t cut out for this job. Waiting in the wings are some nonlinear models – of regime switches, catastrophes, and critical network events – that explain how normally stable, complex systems can become unstable, and that might actually provide us with dependable early warnings of bubbles and crashes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Roy Batchelor, 2009. "Forecasting Sharp Changes," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 13, pages 7-12, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:7-12
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.

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