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Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  2. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
  3. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 181-196.
  4. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," ISER Discussion Paper 1249, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  5. Concepción de la Fuente-Cabrero & Mónica de Castro-Pardo & Rosa Santero-Sánchez & Pilar Laguna-Sánchez, 2019. "The Role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions in the Financial Sustainability of New Family-Owned Small Businesses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-15, November.
  6. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  7. Prati, Alberto & Saucet, Charlotte, 2024. "The causal effect of a health treatment on beliefs, stated preferences and memories," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7rrg4irjh79549mkjh27en0pos is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
  10. Caner, Mehmet & Fan, Qingliang & Grennes, Thomas, 2021. "Partners in debt: An endogenous non-linear analysis of the effects of public and private debt on growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 694-711.
  11. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
  12. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Papers No 13/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  13. João F Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica A Wachter, 2019. "Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 1275-1308.
  14. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne K. Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2021. "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 9326, CESifo.
  15. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
  16. Emanuele Campiglio & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2022. "Macrofinancial Risks of the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(2), pages 173-195.
  17. Machado, Caio, 2023. "Managing Overreaction During a Run," MPRA Paper 117896, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2023.
  18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
  19. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
  20. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
  21. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2020. "How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 949-994, April.
  22. J Anthony Cookson & Joseph E Engelberg & William Mullins & Hui Chen, 0. "Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 863-893.
  23. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1157-1188, September.
  24. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  25. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. De Santis, Roberto A., 2016. "Credit spreads, economic activity and fragmentation," Working Paper Series 1930, European Central Bank.
  28. Saktinil Roy, 2023. "Do Changes in Risk Perception Predict Systemic Banking Crises?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-15, October.
  29. Marta Cota, 2023. "Extrapolative Income Expectations and Retirement Savings," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp751, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  30. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina & Christos A. Makridis, 2024. "Split personalities? Behavioral effects of temperature on financial decision‐making," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 664-689, August.
  31. Greg Howard & Carl Liebersohn, 2019. "What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income Divergence," 2019 Meeting Papers 1054, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  32. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
  33. Filip Rozsypal & Kathrin Schlafmann, 2023. "Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 331-371, October.
  34. Dew-Becker, Ian & Nathanson, Charles G., 2019. "Directed attention and nonparametric learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 461-496.
  35. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  36. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
  37. Mueller, Holger & Giroud, Xavier, 2018. "Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Josh Davis & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7350-7361, October.
  39. Miao Liu, 2022. "Assessing Human Information Processing in Lending Decisions: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 607-651, May.
  40. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial cycles under diagnostic beliefs," Working Paper Series 2659, European Central Bank.
  41. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2024. "Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1450-1484.
  42. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
  43. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Wenhao Li, 2020. "Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 27088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "'Crime and Punishment'? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
  45. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "Econophysics Beyond General Equilibrium: the Business Cycle Model," Papers 1804.04721, arXiv.org.
  46. Andrew Caplin & John V. Leahy, 2019. "Wishful Thinking," NBER Working Papers 25707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
  48. Jin, Lawrence J. & Sui, Pengfei, 2022. "Asset pricing with return extrapolation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 273-295.
  49. Günsür, Başak Tanyeri & Bulut, Emre, 2022. "Investor reactions to major events in the sub-prime mortgage crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  50. Farboodi, Maryam & Kondor, Péter, 2023. "Cleansing by tight credit: Rational cycles and endogenous lending standards," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 46-67.
  51. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  52. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  53. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_022 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
  55. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
  56. John Geanakoplos, 2022. "Leverage Cycle Theory of Economic Crises and Booms," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2370, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  57. Carlo A. Favero & Alessandro Melone, 2019. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor Models," Working Papers 651, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  58. Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei & Yang, Zhongchao, 2024. "Delayed crises and slow recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  59. Jeremy C. Stein, 2021. "Can Policy Tame the Credit Cycle?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 5-22, March.
  60. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Lawrence J. Jin, 2019. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 25747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Niemann, Stefan & Prein, Timm, 2024. "Sovereign Risk under Diagnostic Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  62. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
  63. José Pedro Bastos Neves & Willi Semmler, 2022. "Credit, output and financial stress: A non‐linear LVSTAR application to Brazil," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 900-923, July.
  64. Pablo Pastory y Camarasa & Martien Lamers, 2023. "Do Actions Follow Words? How bank sentiment predicts credit growth," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1073, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  65. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
  66. Broer, Tobias & Kohlhas, Alexandre, 2018. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 12898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  67. Braggion, Fabio & Frehen, Rik & Jerphanion, Emiel, 2020. "Credit Provision and Stock Trading: Evidence from the South Sea Bubble," CEPR Discussion Papers 14532, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial stability and macroprudential regulation under diagnostic expectations," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 101.
  69. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 8-33, August.
  71. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
  72. Mauersberger, Felix & Nagel, Rosemarie & Bühren, Christoph, 2020. "Bounded rationality in Keynesian beauty contests: A lesson for central bankers?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-38.
  73. Keqi Chen, 2020. "A Closer Look at Analyst Expectations: Stickiness and Confirmation Bias," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15.
  74. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  75. Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Hélène Rey & Ragnar Juelsrud, 2020. "Granular credit risk," Working Paper 2020/15, Norges Bank.
  76. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  77. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Massenot, Baptiste, 2020. "Credit cycles: Experimental evidence," SAFE Working Paper Series 104 [rev.], Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2020.
  79. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  80. Pedro Bordalo & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Frederik Schwerter & Andrei Shleifer, 2019. "Memory and Representativeness," NBER Working Papers 25692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Garber, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Sufi, Amir, 2024. "Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  82. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
  83. Jochen Guentner & Elena Afanasyeva, 2017. "Noise-Ridden Lending Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 1211, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  84. Mark Egan & Alexander MacKay & Hanbin Yang, 2022. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2559-2599.
  85. Galanis, Giorgos & Kollias, Iraklis & Leventidis, Ioanis & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2022. "Generalizing Heterogeneous Dynamic Heuristic Selection," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 73, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
  86. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
  87. Braun, Matías & Marcet, Francisco & Raddatz, Claudio, 2024. "The good, the bad, and the not-so-ugly of credit booms?: capital allocation and financial constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  88. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
  89. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
  90. Roy, Saktinil, 2022. "What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  91. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
  92. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  93. Maryam Farboodi & Péter Kondor, 2020. "Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles," NBER Working Papers 27472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  94. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
  95. Da, Zhi & Huang, Xing & Jin, Lawrence J., 2021. "Extrapolative beliefs in the cross-section: What can we learn from the crowds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 175-196.
  96. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  97. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 2021. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
  98. Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro & Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons," CEPR Discussion Papers 16153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  99. Campiglio, Emanuele & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Macro-Financial Transition Risks in the Fight Against Global Warming," RFF Working Paper Series 21-15, Resources for the Future.
  100. Genaro Mart'in Damiani, 2024. "An essay on the history of DSGE models," Papers 2409.00812, arXiv.org.
  101. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
  102. Mr. Divya Kirti, 2018. "Lending Standards and Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/023, International Monetary Fund.
  103. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 24529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  104. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_002 is not listed on IDEAS
  105. Atif Mian, 2016. "Comment on "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 274-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  106. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2018. "Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  107. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  108. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
  109. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  110. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
  111. Arigoni, Filippo & McCann, Fergal & Yao, Fang, 2022. "Mortgage credit and house prices: evidence to inform macroprudential policy," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
  112. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
  113. Giroud, Xavier & Mueller, Holger M., 2021. "Firm leverage and employment dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1381-1394.
  114. Caines, Colin & Winkler, Fabian, 2021. "Asset price beliefs and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 53-67.
  115. Matteo Bizzarri & Daniele d'Arienzo, 2023. "The social value of overreaction to information," CSEF Working Papers 690, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  116. Eugene Larsen-Hallock & Adam Rej & David Thesmar, 2022. "Expectations Formation with Fat-tailed Processes: Evidence from Sales Forecasts," Papers 2210.10169, arXiv.org.
  117. José Daniel Aromí, 2021. "Large Current Account Deficits and Neglected Vulnerabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 597-623, December.
  118. Jean Paul Rabanal & Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Olga A. Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2019. "Market timing under public and private information," Working Papers 151, Peruvian Economic Association.
  119. Artur Doshchyn, 2022. "Productivity Booms, Bank Fragility, and Financial Crises," Economics Series Working Papers 1027, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  120. David López-Salido & Jeremy C. Stein & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1373-1426.
  121. Bazzana, Davide & Colturato, Michele & Savona, Roberto, 2023. "Learning about unprecedented events: Agent-based modelling and the stock market impact of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  122. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2021. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 28881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  123. Tom D. Holden, 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1551, September.
  124. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  125. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2019. "Climate Transition Risk, Climate Sentiments, and Financial Stability in a Stock-Flow Consistent approach," Ecological Economic Papers 23, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  126. Jonathan J Adams, 2024. "Optimal Policy Without Rational Expectations: A Sufficient Statistic Solution," Working Papers 001011, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
  127. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Economics Series Working Papers 973, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  128. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 93269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  129. Chen Lian, 2023. "Mistakes in Future Consumption, High MPCs Now," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 563-581, December.
  130. Gemmi, Luca, 2024. "Rational overoptimism and limited liability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  131. Carvalho, Daniel & Gao, Janet & Ma, Pengfei, 2023. "Loan spreads and credit cycles: The role of lenders’ personal economic experiences," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 118-149.
  132. Johannes Maier & Clemens König, 2016. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Belief Updating," CESifo Working Paper Series 6156, CESifo.
  133. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
  134. Sonan Memon, 2023. "Expectation Shocks and Business Cycles," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  135. Hanna Freudenreich & Sindu W. Kebede, 2022. "Experience of shocks, household wealth and expectation formation: Evidence from smallholder farmers in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 756-774, September.
  136. Tobias Herbst & Moritz Kuhn & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Army of Mortgagors: Long-Run Evidence on Credit Externalities and the Housing Market," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 293, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  137. Leland Bybee, 2023. "Surveying Generative AI's Economic Expectations," Papers 2305.02823, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  138. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Introducing a composite indicator of cyclical systemic risk in Croatia: possibilities and limitations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 1-39.
  139. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
  140. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion & Candace E Jens & Stefano Rossi, 2024. "Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(11), pages 3335-3385.
  141. Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Financial crises and shadow banks: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 74-92.
  142. Angelos Liapis & Stylianos Artsidakis & Christos Galanos, 2023. "Forecasting Methods of Key Ratios and Their Impact in Company’s Value," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
  143. Isabel Trevino, 2020. "Informational Channels of Financial Contagion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 297-335, January.
  144. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  145. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2022. "Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  146. Tobias Herbst & Moritz Kuhn & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Army of Mortgagors: Long-Run Evidence on Credit Externalities and the Housing Market," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 087, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  147. Albaity, Mohamed & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md. & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Cyclicality of bank credit growth: Conventional vs Islamic banks in the GCC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
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