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Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines

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  • Aydın, Deniz

Abstract

I design a large-scale field experiment that constructs a randomized credit limit extension isolating selection, anticipation, wealth, and interest rate effects and study the impulse responses on spending, contract choice, and balance sheets. Participants borrow to spend 11 cents on the dollar in the quarter of the limit increase, with a cumulative difference of 28 cents by the third year. The effects extend to those far from the limit, those who had the new limits as available credit, and those with a meaningful buffer of liquid assets. Participants near their limits borrow and spend when limits are relaxed but put off spending and save out of constraints under the counterfactual when limits are tight. The findings provide strong support for a buffer-stock interpretation that emphasizes the importance of precautionary saving.

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  • Aydın, Deniz, 2021. "Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines," EconStor Preprints 222359, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:222359
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    6. Nathan Blascak & Anna Tranfaglia, 2021. "Decomposing Gender Differences in Bankcard Credit Limits," Working Papers 21-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Yijun Li & Cheuk Hang Leung & Xiangqian Sun & Chaoqun Wang & Yiyan Huang & Xing Yan & Qi Wu & Dongdong Wang & Zhixiang Huang, 2023. "The Causal Impact of Credit Lines on Spending Distributions," Papers 2312.10388, arXiv.org.
    8. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2022. "Voluntary minimum repayments and borrower heterogeneity: Evidence from revolving consumer credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Agarwal, Sumit & Presbitero, Andrea & Silva, Andre F. & Wix, Carlo, 2022. "Who Pays For Your Rewards? Redistribution in the Credit Card Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 17733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Rodney Ramcharan & Vincent Yao & Edison Yu, 2020. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households," NBER Working Papers 27646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Filipe Correia & Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago C. Silva, 2021. "Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees?," Working Papers Series 551, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Aydin, Deniz, 2021. "Forbearance, Interest Rates, and Present-Value Effects in a Randomized Debt Relief Experiment," EconStor Preprints 248467, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Garber, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Sufi, Amir, 2024. "Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Baugh, Brian & Correia, Filipe, 2022. "Does paycheck frequency matter? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1026-1042.
    15. Alfonso-Sánchez, Sherly & Solano, Jesús & Correa-Bahnsen, Alejandro & Sendova, Kristina P. & Bravo, Cristián, 2024. "Optimizing credit limit adjustments under adversarial goals using reinforcement learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 802-817.
    16. Marco Di Maggio & Emily Williams & Justin Katz, 2022. "Buy Now, Pay Later Credit: User Characteristics and Effects on Spending Patterns," NBER Working Papers 30508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Brian Baugh & Itzhak Ben-David & Hoonsuk Park & Jonathan A. Parker, 2021. "Asymmetric Consumption Smoothing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 192-230, January.
    18. Krivorotov, George, 2023. "Machine learning-based profit modeling for credit card underwriting - implications for credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    19. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    20. Scott L. Fulford & Joanna Stavins, 2024. "Income and the CARD Act’s Ability‐to‐Pay Rule in the US Credit Card Market," Working Papers 24-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    21. Alvaro Mezza & Daniel R. Ringo & Kamila Sommer, 2021. "Student Loans, Access to Credit and Consumer Financial Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Scott R. Baker & Brian Baugh & Marco C. Sammon, 2020. "Measuring Customer Churn and Interconnectedness," NBER Working Papers 27707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Aydin, Deniz, 2023. "Forbearance vs. Interest Rates: Tests of Liquidity and Strategic Default Triggers in a Randomized Debt Relief Experiment," EconStor Research Reports 268646, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    24. Agarwal, Sumit & Koo, Kang Mo & Qian, Wenlan, 2022. "Consumption response to temporary price shock: Evidence from Singapore's annual sale event," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; credit; MPC; randomized field experiment; precautionary saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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