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What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?

Author

Listed:
  • Simona Malovaná

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Martin Hodula

    (Czech National Bank
    Technical University of Ostrava)

  • Jan Frait

    (Czech National Bank
    University of Finance and Administration in Prague)

Abstract

We construct a novel index of households’ macroeconomic environment (HOME) based on the data from 22 high-income European countries between 2002 Q1 and 2018 Q4. The resulting index is in line with the broad features of the countries’ business and financial cycles and captures well households’ perception of their underlying economic situation. We discuss joint properties of the HOME index and the widely employed survey-based consumer confidence indicator. We show that households’ expectations are tightly linked to current macroeconomic conditions. This finding echoes the literature linking consumer attitudes and actual economic developments. The HOME index also reflects the importance of asset prices and lending conditions for households’ behavior. In a single-country case study, we provide empirical evidence that links the proposed index to new credit extended to households. The evidence suggests that households need a longer period of good macroeconomic conditions to decide to take on a mortgage than they do in the case of a consumer loan.

Suggested Citation

  • Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:155:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-021-02626-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-021-02626-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Inna Bielova & Jaroslav Halík & Lyudmila Ryabushka, 2021. "The Causal Nexus of Consumer and Business Confidence Indexes in Early Pandemic Period: Evidence from OECD Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    4. António Bento Caleiro, 2021. "Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, September.
    5. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Ryszard Wilczyński, 2021. "Do Credit Supply and Unemployment Risk Matter for Household Saving? Evidence from Poland," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 15(4), December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Composite index; Factor analysis; Households’ confidence; Loan growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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