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Macroeconomic perceptions, financial constraints, and anomalies

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  • He, Wei
  • Su, Zhiwei
  • Yu, Jianfeng

Abstract

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of subjective macroeconomic expectations on the cross-section of equity returns. We argue that an upward revision in expectations of macroeconomic productivity might be accompanied by an excessive increase in investment and external financing, inflated current equity prices, and thus lowered subsequent returns, particularly for financially constrained firms. Thus, following upward revisions in expectations of macroeconomic productivity, subsequent returns are relatively low for small firms, value firms, low-investment firms, risky firms, unprofitable firms, low-quality firms, and financially distressed firms—all of which are more financially constrained. In sharp contrast, following downward revisions in expectations of macroeconomic productivity, these categories of firms earn relatively high subsequent returns. We find that revisions in subjective macroeconomic expectations induce strong predictable time variation in a large set of anomalies. In particular, favorable revisions in expectations of macroeconomic productivity predict significantly stronger profitability, quality, distress, and low-risk anomalies but weaker value, investment, and size anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Wei & Su, Zhiwei & Yu, Jianfeng, 2024. "Macroeconomic perceptions, financial constraints, and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001752
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103952
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anomalies; Financial constraints; Overreaction; Subjective expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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