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A Parsimonious Model for Forecasting Gross Box-Office Revenues of Motion Pictures

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Cited by:

  1. Allègre L. Hadida & Joseph Lampel & W. David Walls & Amit Joshi, 2021. "Hollywood studio filmmaking in the age of Netflix: a tale of two institutional logics," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 45(2), pages 213-238, June.
  2. Steven F. Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2022. "The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 189-210, January.
  3. Ana Suárez-Vázquez, 2011. "Critic power or star power? The influence of hallmarks of quality of motion pictures: an experimental approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 35(2), pages 119-135, May.
  4. Youseok Lee & Sang-Hoon Kim & Kyoung Cheon Cha, 2023. "The diffusion pattern of new products: evidence from the Korean movie industry," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 1830-1847, November.
  5. Healey, John & Moe, Wendy W., 2016. "The effects of installed base innovativeness and recency on content sales in a platform-mediated market," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 246-260.
  6. Don M. Chance & Eric Hillebrand & Jimmy E. Hilliard, 2008. "Pricing an Option on Revenue from an Innovation: An Application to Movie Box Office Revenue," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(5), pages 1015-1028, May.
  7. Gaenssle Sophia & Budzinski Oliver & Astakhova Daria, 2018. "Conquering the Box Office: Factors Influencing Success of International Movies in Russia," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 245-266, December.
  8. Fei Peng & Lili Kang & Sajid Anwar & Xue Li, 2019. "Star power and box office revenues: evidence from China," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 43(2), pages 247-278, June.
  9. John Hauser & Gerard J. Tellis & Abbie Griffin, 2006. "Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 687-717, 11-12.
  10. Franses, Philip Hans, 2021. "Modeling box office revenues of motion pictures✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  11. Ana Suárez-Vázquez & José Quevedo, 2015. "Analyzing superstars’ power using support vector machines," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1521-1542, December.
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  13. Julianne Treme, 2010. "Effects of Celebrity Media Exposure on Box-Office Performance," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 5-16.
  14. Randy Nelson & Robert Glotfelty, 2012. "Movie stars and box office revenues: an empirical analysis," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 36(2), pages 141-166, May.
  15. Eliashberg, Jehoshua & Hegie, Quintus & Ho, Jason & Huisman, Dennis & Miller, Steven J. & Swami, Sanjeev & Weinberg, Charles B. & Wierenga, Berend, 2009. "Demand-driven scheduling of movies in a multiplex," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 75-88.
  16. Thorsten Hennig-Thurau & Mark Houston & Gianfranco Walsh, 2007. "Determinants of motion picture box office and profitability: an interrelationship approach," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 65-92, April.
  17. Banerjee, Bibek & Chakrabarty Patrali, 2010. "An Eye for an Eye: Impact of Sequelization and Comparison in Advertisements on Consumer’s Perception of Brands," IIMA Working Papers WP2010-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  18. Kim, Taegu & Hong, Jungsik & Kang, Pilsung, 2015. "Box office forecasting using machine learning algorithms based on SNS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 364-390.
  19. Baranchuk Nina & Seetharaman Seethu & Strijnev Andrei, 2019. "Revenue Sharing Vertical Contracts in the Movie Industry: A Theoretical Analysis," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 81-116, June.
  20. Karniouchina, Ekaterina V., 2011. "Impact of star and movie buzz on motion picture distribution and box office revenue," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-74.
  21. A. Yeşim Orhun & Sriram Venkataraman & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2016. "Impact of Competition on Product Decisions: Movie Choices of Exhibitors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 73-92, January.
  22. Jackie Y. Luan & K. Sudhir, 2022. "Optimal Inter-Release Time between Sequentially Released Products," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  23. C F Elliott & R Simmons, 2007. "Determinants of UK box office success: the impact of quality signals," Working Papers 584026, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  24. Wendy W. Moe & Peter S. Fader, 2002. "Fast-Track: Article Using Advance Purchase Orders to Forecast New Product Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 347-364, March.
  25. Divakaran, Pradeep Kumar Ponnamma & Palmer, Adrian & Søndergaard, Helle Alsted & Matkovskyy, Roman, 2017. "Pre-launch Prediction of Market Performance for Short Lifecycle Products Using Online Community Data," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 12-28.
  26. Stefan Stremersch & Jorge Gonzalez & Albert Valenti & Julian Villanueva, 2023. "The value of context-specific studies for marketing," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 50-65, January.
  27. Yi Liao & Yuxuan Peng & Songlin Shi & Victor Shi & Xiaohong Yu, 2022. "Early box office prediction in China’s film market based on a stacking fusion model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 308(1), pages 321-338, January.
  28. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
  29. Clement, Michel & Wu, Steven & Fischer, Marc, 2014. "Empirical generalizations of demand and supply dynamics for movies," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 207-223.
  30. (Kay) Byun, Kyung-ah & Ma, Minghui & Kim, Kevin & Kang, Taeghyun, 2021. "Buying a New Product with Inconsistent Product Reviews from Multiple Sources: The Role of Information Diagnosticity and Advertising," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 81-103.
  31. Morris Holbrook & Michela Addis, 2008. "Art versus commerce in the movie industry: a Two-Path Model of Motion-Picture Success," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 32(2), pages 87-107, June.
  32. Ronald L. Goettler & Phillip Leslie, 2005. "Cofinancing to Manage Risk in the Motion Picture Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 231-261, June.
  33. Daekook Kang, 2021. "Box-office forecasting in Korea using search trend data: a modified generalized Bass diffusion model," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 41-72, March.
  34. Durand, Rodolphe & Hadida, Allègre L., 2016. "Logic combination and performance across occupational communities: The case of French film directors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 2371-2379.
  35. Brianna JeeWon Paulich & V. Kumar, 2021. "Relating entertainment features in screenplays to movie performance: an empirical investigation," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1222-1242, November.
  36. Xinlei Chen & Yuxin Chen & Charles Weinberg, 2013. "Learning about movies: the impact of movie release types on the nationwide box office," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(3), pages 359-386, August.
  37. Prasad Ashutosh & Bronnenberg Bart & Mahajan Vijay, 2004. "Product Entry Timing in Dual Distribution Channels: The Case of the Movie Industry," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, March.
  38. Gazley, Aaron & Clark, Gemma & Sinha, Ashish, 2011. "Understanding preferences for motion pictures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 854-861, August.
  39. Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
  40. Rafal Zbyrowski & Natalia Gmerek, 2016. "Pooled Modelling of the Product Life Cycle of Feature Films in Poland (Modelowanie panelowe cyklu zycia filmu kinowego w Polsce)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(22), pages 185-193.
  41. Daniel Kaimann, 2014. "Combining Qualitative Comparative Analysis and Shapley Value Decomposition: A Novel Approach for Modeling Complex Causal Structures in Dynamic Markets," Working Papers Dissertations 12, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
  42. Jason M. T. Roos & Ron Shachar, 2014. "When Kerry Met Sally: Politics and Perceptions in the Demand for Movies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1617-1631, July.
  43. Caroline Elliott & Rob Simmons, 2008. "Determinants of UK Box Office Success: The Impact of Quality Signals," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 33(2), pages 93-111, September.
  44. Andrew Ainslie & Xavier Drèze & Fred Zufryden, 2005. "Modeling Movie Life Cycles and Market Share," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 508-517, November.
  45. Liye Ma & Alan L. Montgomery & Param Vir Singh & Michael D. Smith, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Pre-Release Movie Piracy on Box Office Revenue," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 25(3), pages 590-603, September.
  46. Darlene C Chisholm, 2011. "Motion Pictures," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 39, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  47. Antipov, Evgeny & Pokryshevskaya, Elena, 2010. "Accounting for latent classes in movie box office modeling," MPRA Paper 27644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Krishnan Jeesha & Sumod S D & Prashant Premkumar & Shovan Chowdhury, 2018. "Does Story Really Matter In The Movie Industry? : PreProduction Stage Predictive Models," Working papers 284, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
  49. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Anita Elberse & Mark A.A.M. Leenders, 2006. "The Motion Picture Industry: Critical Issues in Practice, Current Research, and New Research Directions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 638-661, 11-12.
  50. Lee, Youseok & Kim, Sang-Hoon & Cha, Kyoung Cheon, 2021. "Impact of online information on the diffusion of movies: Focusing on cultural differences," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 603-609.
  51. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
  52. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Sam K. Hui & Z. John Zhang, 2007. "From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 881-893, June.
  53. Victor Ginsburgh & Sheila Weyers, 1999. "On the Perceived Quality of Movies," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 23(4), pages 269-283, November.
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  55. Bae, Giwoong & Kim, Hye-jin, 2019. "The impact of movie titles on box office success," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 100-109.
  56. Kaimann, Daniel & Pannicke, Julia, 2015. "Movie success in a genre specific contest: Evidence from the US film industry," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 98, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
  57. Amit M. Joshi & Dominique M. Hanssens, 2009. "Movie Advertising and the Stock Market Valuation of Studios: A Case of “Great Expectations?”," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 239-250, 03-04.
  58. Frederick Derrick & Nancy Williams & Charles Scott, 2014. "A two-stage proxy variable approach to estimating movie box office receipts," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 38(2), pages 173-189, May.
  59. Moez Hababou & Nawel Amrouche & Kamel Jedidi, 2016. "Measuring Economic Efficiency in the Motion Picture Industry: a Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 3(3), pages 144-158, December.
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  61. Thomas S. Gruca & Joyce Berg & Michael Cipriano, 2003. "The Effect of Electronic Markets on Forecasts of New Product Success," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 95-105, January.
  62. Rouven Seifert & Cord Otten & Michel Clement & Sönke Albers & Ole Kleinen, 2023. "Exclusivity strategies for digital products across digital and physical markets," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 245-265, March.
  63. Thorsten Hennig-Thurau & André Marchand & Barbara Hiller, 2012. "The relationship between reviewer judgments and motion picture success: re-analysis and extension," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 36(3), pages 249-283, August.
  64. Wallentin, Erik, 2016. "Demand for cinema and diverging tastes of critics and audiences," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 72-81.
  65. Packard, Grant & Aribarg, Anocha & Eliashberg, Jehoshua & Foutz, Natasha Z., 2016. "The role of network embeddedness in film success," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 328-342.
  66. Leenders, Mark A.A.M. & Eliashberg, Jehoshua, 2011. "The antecedents and consequences of restrictive age-based ratings in the global motion picture industry," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 367-377.
  67. Raventós, Pedro & Ospina, José Miguel, 2013. "Strategic management in Latin America: Introduction to a special section," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1725-1727.
  68. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
  69. Sanjeev Swami & Martin L. Puterman & Charles B. Weinberg, 2001. "Play It Again, Sam? Optimal Replacement Policies for a Motion Picture Exhibitor," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 369-386, July.
  70. Yayla, Serdar & Kutlubay, Omer Cem & Cicek, Mesut & Yeniyurt, Sengun, 2023. "Once upon a time in a foreign market: The role of cultural distance in the economic performance of multilateral non-equity partnerships," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
  71. Wu, Chunhua & Weinberg, Charles B. & Wang, Qiyuan & Ho, Jason Y.C., 2022. "Administrative trade barrier: An empirical analysis of exporting Hollywood movies to China," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1253-1274.
  72. Hyunwoo Hwangbo & Jonghyuk Kim, 2019. "A Text Mining Approach for Sustainable Performance in the Film Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, June.
  73. Nadarajah, Saralees & Kotz, Samuel, 2009. "Models for purchase frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 1014-1026, February.
  74. Ramya Neelamegham & Pradeep Chintagunta, 1999. "A Bayesian Model to Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 115-136.
  75. Sanjeev Swami & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Charles B. Weinberg, 1999. "SilverScreener: A Modeling Approach to Movie Screens Management," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 352-372.
  76. Burmester, Alexa B. & Becker, Jan U. & van Heerde, Harald J. & Clement, Michel, 2015. "The impact of pre- and post-launch publicity and advertising on new product sales," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 408-417.
  77. Delre, S.A. & Jager, W. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Janssen, M.A., 2007. "Targeting and timing promotional activities: An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 826-835, August.
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  79. Fleck, Robert K. & Hanssen, F. Andrew, 2016. "Persistence and change in age-specific gender gaps: Hollywood actors from the silent era onward," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 36-49.
  80. Yoo, Changsok & Cha, Kyoung Cheon & Kim, Sang-Hoon, 2020. "A quantile regression approach to gaining insights for reacquition of defected customers," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 443-452.
  81. Delre, Sebastiano A. & Luffarelli, Jonathan, 2023. "Consumer reviews and product life cycle: On the temporal dynamics of electronic word of mouth on movie box office," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  82. Roland T. Rust & Tuck Siong Chung, 2006. "Marketing Models of Service and Relationships," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 560-580, 11-12.
  83. Sumiko Asai, 2009. "Sales Patterns of Hit Music in Japan," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 81-101.
  84. Peter Boatwright & Suman Basuroy & Wagner Kamakura, 2007. "Reviewing the reviewers: The impact of individual film critics on box office performance," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-425, December.
  85. Palsule-Desai, Omkar D., 2013. "Supply chain coordination using revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 780-796.
  86. Sam K. Hui & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Edward I. George, 2008. "Modeling DVD Preorder and Sales: An Optimal Stopping Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 1097-1110, 11-12.
  87. Luís Cabral & Gabriel Natividad, 2016. "Box-Office Demand: The Importance of Being #1," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 277-294, June.
  88. Mark J Ferrari & Andrew Rudd, 2008. "Investing in movies," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 22-40, May.
  89. Eliashberg, J. & Hegie, Q. & Ho, J. & Huisman, D. & Miller, S.J. & Swami, S. & Weinberg, C.B. & Wierenga, B., 2007. "Demand-driven scheduling of movies in a multiplex," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-17, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  91. Allègre Hadida, 2010. "Commercial success and artistic recognition of motion picture projects," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(1), pages 45-80, February.
  92. Rubin, Dan & Mohr, Iris & Kumar, V., 2022. "Beyond the box office: A conceptual framework for the drivers of audience engagement," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 473-488.
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  97. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Sanjeev Swami & Charles B. Weinberg & Berend Wierenga, 2001. "Implementing and Evaluating SilverScreener: A Marketing Management Support System for Movie Exhibitors," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 108-127, June.
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  103. Yuan-Lin Hsu & Wen-Jhan Jane, 2016. "Bidirectional Causality for Word of Mouth and the Movie Box Office: An Empirical Investigation of Panel Data," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 139-152, July.
  104. Mun, Mak Kit & Chong, Choo Wei, 2018. "Forecasting Movie Demand Using Total and Split Exponential Smoothing," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(2), pages 81-94.
  105. Peukert, Christian & Claussen, Jörg & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2017. "Piracy and box office movie revenues: Evidence from Megaupload," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 188-215.
  106. Marshall, Pablo & Dockendorff, Monika & Ibáñez, Soledad, 2013. "A forecasting system for movie attendance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1800-1806.
  107. Michel Clement & Anke Hille & Bernd Lucke & Christina Schmidt-Stölting & Frank Sambeth, 2008. "Der Einfluss von Rankings auf den Absatz — Eine empirische Analyse der Wirkung von Bestsellerlisten und Rangpositionen auf den Erfolg von Büchern," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 60(8), pages 746-777, December.
  108. Christine Balagué & Laurent Florès, 2007. "Buzz on line : what is the impact on movies box office? [Buzz on line : quel impact sur les entrées des films de cinéma ?]," Post-Print hal-02549568, HAL.
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  110. Xinxue (Shawn) Qu & Aslan Lotfi & Dipak C. Jain & Zhengrui Jiang, 2022. "Predicting upgrade timing for successive product generations: An exponential‐decay proportional hazard model," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(5), pages 2067-2083, May.
  111. Natalia Gmerek, 2015. "The determinants of Polish movies’ box office performance in Poland," Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(1), pages 15-35.
  112. Liran Einav, 2007. "Seasonality in the U.S. motion picture industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 127-145, March.
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  114. Tirtha Dhar & Guanghui Sun & Charles Weinberg, 2012. "The long-term box office performance of sequel movies," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 13-29, March.
  115. Caroline Elliott & Palitha Konara & Haiyi Ling & Chengang Wang & Yingqi Wei, 2018. "Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 63-95, March.
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