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Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions

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Cited by:

  1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
  2. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
  4. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
  5. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  6. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
  7. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
  10. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 325-331, May.
  11. Tadashi Yamada, 1985. "The Crime Rate and the Condition of the Labor Market: A Vector Autoregressive Model," NBER Working Papers 1782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jarociński, Marek & Marcet, Albert, 2019. "Priors about observables in vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 238-255.
  13. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2021. "Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns: A Score-Driven State Space Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 1054-1065, October.
  14. Bessler, David A., 1985. "The Forecast In Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1985: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 24-27, 1985, Charleston, South Carolina 271795, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
  15. Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Adaptive hierarchical priors for high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 241-271.
  16. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
  17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Marco Pinchetti & Andrzej Szczepaniak, 2024. "Global Spillovers of the Fed Information Effect," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 773-819, June.
  19. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  20. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions four years of experience," Staff Report 95, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1991_004 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 18298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Maged Shawky Sourial, 2002. "The Future of the Stock Market Channel In Egypt," Finance 0204002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation," NBER Working Papers 2233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. S. Chatterjee, 1992. "Natural Resource and the Structure of Australia's Foreign Trade," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  26. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  27. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
  28. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
  29. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
  30. Thomas B. Fomby & William C. Gruben & James G. Hoehn, 1984. "Some time series methods of forecasting the Texas economy," Working Papers 8402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  31. Ford, Stephen A., 1986. "A Beginner'S Guide To Vector Autoregression," Staff Papers 13527, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  32. Roy H. Webb, 1985. "Toward more accurate macroeconomic forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 71(Jul), pages 3-11.
  33. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
  34. Gediminas Adomavicius & Jesse Bockstedt & Alok Gupta, 2012. "Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 397-417, June.
  35. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-022, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  36. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
  37. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
  38. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  39. Preston J. Miller & Thomas M. Supel & Thomas H. Turner, 1980. "Estimating the effects of the oil-price shock," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 4(Win).
  40. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
  41. Starck, Christian, 1991. "Specifying a Bayesian vector autoregression for short-run macroeconomic forecasting with an application to Finland," Research Discussion Papers 4/1991, Bank of Finland.
  42. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
  43. Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Estimating vector autoregressions using methods not based on explicit economic theories," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Sum).
  44. Sonsoles Castillo & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 2003. "BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 411-426.
  45. Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Rational expectations and the reconstruction of macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 4(Sum).
  46. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on net worth and consumption across races in the United States," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
  47. Franta, Michal, 2017. "Rare shocks vs. non-linearities: What drives extreme events in the economy? Some empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 136-157.
  48. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Fall).
  49. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Orden, David, 1982. "Preliminary Empirical Evidence Concerning An Asset Theory Model Of Markets For Storable Agricultural Commodities," Staff Papers 14087, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  51. Hossain Amirizadeh & Richard M. Todd, 1984. "More growth ahead for Ninth District states," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Fall).
  52. Surbhi Mishra & Dukhabandhu Sahoo & Souryabrata Mohapatra, 2024. "Mapping Structural Break and Sectoral Movement on Female Employment in India Since 1991," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 67(3), pages 731-750, September.
  53. Scheffel, Eric Michael, 2012. "Political uncertainty in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 37318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Erwin W. Heri, 1988. "Money Demand Regressions and Monetary Targeting Theory and Stylized Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(II), pages 123-149, June.
  55. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2798, European Central Bank.
  56. Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2017. "The role of oil prices in the forecasts of South African interest rates: A Bayesian approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 270-278.
  57. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  58. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  59. Zapata, Hector O. & Garcia, Philip, 1990. "Price Forecasting With Time-Series Methods And Nonstationary Data: An Application To Monthly U.S. Cattle Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, July.
  60. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  61. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
  62. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Hierarchical shrinkage priors for dynamic regressions with many predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 43-59.
  63. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
  64. John H. Kareken, 1983. "Deposit insurance reform or deregulation is the cart, not the horse," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 7(Spr).
  65. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a BVAR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 76-87, December.
  66. Jocelyn Horne, 1983. "The Money Formation Table Approach to Forecasting: An Evaluation of the Institute Money Supply Forecasts," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 16(4), pages 69-77, December.
  67. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  69. Máximo Camacho & Matías Pacce & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Papers 2034, Banco de España.
  70. Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A. & Vaca González, Paola A. & Avila Forero, Raúl A., 2013. "Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 216-249, December.
  71. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2021. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2477-2499, November.
  72. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  73. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  74. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  75. Francisco F. R. Ramos, 1996. "VAR Priors: Success or lack of a decent macroeconomic theory?," Econometrics 9601002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  77. Nicholson, William B. & Matteson, David S. & Bien, Jacob, 2017. "VARX-L: Structured regularization for large vector autoregressions with exogenous variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 627-651.
  78. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.
  79. Naci H. Mocan, 1989. "Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the U.S.: A Vector-Autoregressive Model," NBER Working Papers 3177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Carlos Alba & Julio A. Carrillo & Raúl Ibarra, 2024. "Information Effects of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Emerging Economies: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2024-14, Banco de México.
  81. Ran, Guanghe & In, Francis & Dillon, John L., 1995. "Effects of agricultural production fluctuations on the Chinese macroeconomy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 69-78, April.
  82. Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 2003/102, International Monetary Fund.
  83. Ray C. Fair, 1987. "VAR Models as Structural Approximations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 856R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 1989.
  84. Samuel N. Cohen & Silvia Lui & Will Malpass & Giulia Mantoan & Lars Nesheim & 'Aureo de Paula & Andrew Reeves & Craig Scott & Emma Small & Lingyi Yang, 2023. "Nowcasting with signature methods," Papers 2305.10256, arXiv.org.
  85. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  86. William M. Lupoletti & Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model," Working Paper 84-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  87. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
  88. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.
  89. Chakravarty, Sangeeta & Mitra, Arup, 2009. "Is industry still the engine of growth? An econometric study of the organized sector employment in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 22-35.
  90. Thomas F. Cargill & Steven A. Morus, 1988. "A vector autoregression model of the Nevada economy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 21-32.
  91. Elisa Keller, 2007. "Classical and Bayesian Methods for the VAR Analysis: International Comparisons," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 149-202, November-.
  92. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
  93. Preston J. Miller, 1982. "A time series analysis of federal budget policy," Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  94. Ford, Stephen A., 1986. "An Application Of Bayesian Vector Autoregression To The U.S. Turkey Market," Staff Papers 13982, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  95. Ivo da Rocha Lima Filho, Roberto, 2019. "Does PPI lead CPI IN Brazil?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 73-79.
  96. Moratis, George, 2021. "Quantifying the spillover effect in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  97. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  98. Robert B. Litterman & Thomas M. Supel, 1983. "Using vector autoregressions to measure the uncertainty in Minnesota's revenue forecasts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 7(Spr).
  99. Sigouin, Christian & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Quel rôle peut-on imputer aux banques à charte canadiennes dans la transmission des chocs monétaires des années quatre-vingt?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 367-393, mars-juin.
  100. Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques & Lauzon, Simon, 1992. "La règle monétaire de McCallum revue à la lumière de la méthodologie de Litterman," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 262-282, mars et j.
  101. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
  102. Tripathi, Amarnath, 2016. "Agriculture is Still the Engine of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Uttar Pradesh, India," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 13(1), June.
  103. Simkins, Scott, 1995. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models subject to business cycle restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 569-583, December.
  104. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
  105. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2002. "Causalidad y cointegracion en modelos econometricos: Aplicaciones a los paises de la OCDE y limitaciones de los tests de cointegracion," Economic Development 61, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
  106. Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 70(Jan), pages 3-11.
  107. Paul A. Anderson, 1979. "Help for the regional economic forecaster: vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Sum).
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