IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v38y2021ics1544612319304787.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the spillover effect in the cryptocurrency market

Author

Listed:
  • Moratis, George

Abstract

The study quantifies the spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market using a rolling-window Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model. The present study offers a better understanding of the interconnectedness and the shock transmission in the cryptocurrency market, as it quantifies spillover risk at the pairwise directional level, offering a dynamic understanding of the shock fluctuation within the market which in turn uncovers periods of risk integration. In addition, the study investigates the determinants of the spillover shocks in the cryptocurrency market, revealing the increasing connections to external drivers over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Moratis, George, 2021. "Quantifying the spillover effect in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319304787
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612319304787
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101534?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2018. "On the determinants of bitcoin returns: A LASSO approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 235-240.
    3. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    4. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Herding behaviour in cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 216-221.
    5. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    6. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2014. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-153.
    8. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 122-127.
    9. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2019. "Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 511-518.
    10. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    11. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Co-explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-183.
    12. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2018. "Collective behavior of cryptocurrency price changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 499-509.
    13. Bouri, Elie & Azzi, Georges & Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2017. "On the return-volatility relationship in the Bitcoin market around the price crash of 2013," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-16.
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    15. Zięba, Damian & Kokoszczyński, Ryszard & Śledziewska, Katarzyna, 2019. "Shock transmission in the cryptocurrency market. Is Bitcoin the most influential?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 102-125.
    16. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    17. Giudici, Paolo & Abu-Hashish, Iman, 2019. "What determines bitcoin exchange prices? A network VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 309-318.
    18. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    19. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Information interdependence among energy, cryptocurrency and major commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1042-1055.
    20. Smales, L.A., 2019. "Bitcoin as a safe haven: Is it even worth considering?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 385-393.
    21. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
    22. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Wen, Danyan & Zhao, Longfeng, 2019. "When Bitcoin meets economic policy uncertainty (EPU): Measuring risk spillover effect from EPU to Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    2. Bas, Tugba & Malki, Issam & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2024. "Connectedness between central bank digital currency index, financial stability and digital assets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2022. "Cryptocurrency market connectedness in Covid-19 days and the role of Twitter: Evidence from a smooth transition regression model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Ahmad, Tanveer & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "Extreme tail network analysis of cryptocurrencies and trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Risk transmissions between bitcoin and traditional financial assets during the COVID-19 era: The role of global uncertainties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Wanas Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Does volatility connectedness across major cryptocurrencies behave the same at different frequencies? A portfolio risk analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 96-113.
    10. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Volatility and return connectedness of cryptocurrency, gold, and uncertainty: Evidence from the cryptocurrency uncertainty indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    11. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Górka, Joanna & Hemmings, Danial & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns: A lesson from turbulent times," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    13. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Liquidity connectedness in cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Lee, Seungju & Lee, Jaewook & Lee, Yunyoung, 2023. "Dissecting the Terra-LUNA crash: Evidence from the spillover effect and information flow," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    15. Li, Xingyi & Gan, Kai & Zhou, Qi, 2023. "Dynamic volatility connectedness among cryptocurrencies and China's financial assets in standard times and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.
    17. BRIK, Hatem & El OUAKDI, Jihene & FTITI, Zied, 2022. "Roles of stable versus nonstable cryptocurrencies in Bitcoin market dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Thomas F. P. Wiesen & Lakshya Bharadwaj, 2023. "Cryptocurrency Connectedness: Does Controlling for the Cross-Correlations Matter?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(20), pages 2873-2880, November.
    20. Elie Bouri & Matteo Foglia & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Return-Volatility Nexus in the Digital Asset Class: A Dynamic Multilayer Connectedness Analysis," Working Papers 202432, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin; Spillover Risk; Connectedness; Bayesian VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319304787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.