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BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU

Author

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  • Sonsoles Castillo

    (Research Department, BBVA)

  • Fernando C. Ballabriga

    (ESADE, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

This paper describes the BBVA-ARIES, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) for the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In addition to providing EMU-wide growth and inflation forecasts, the model provides an assessment of the interactions between key EMU macroeconomic variables and external ones, such as world GDP or commodity prices. A comparison of the forecasts generated by the model and those of private analysts and public institutions reveals a very positive balance in favour of the model. For their part, the simulations allow us to assess the potential macroeconomic effects of macroeconomic developments in the EMU. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonsoles Castillo & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 2003. "BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 411-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:5:p:411-426
    DOI: 10.1002/for.861
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis J. Álvarez & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 1994. "BVAR models in the context of cointegration: A Monte Carlo experiment," Working Papers 9405, Banco de España.
    2. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Fernando C. Ballabriga & Luis Julián Álvarez González & Javier Jareño Morago, 1998. "Un modelo macroeconómico BVAR para la economía española: metodología y resultados," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España, number 64.
    4. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1990. "BVAR Forecasts of the World Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.

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