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The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model

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  • Matkovskyy, Roman

Abstract

This paper proposes an approach to explore the strength of the financial system of a country against the possibility of financial perturbations appearing based on the construction of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of a country. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Gibbs sampler technique is used to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model of the IFS of South Africa for the period 1990Q1-2011Q1 and to forecast its value over the period 2011Q2-2017Q1. It is shown that the IFS could capture the disturbances in the financial system and the BVAR models with the non-informative and Minnesota priors could predict the future dynamics of IFS with sufficient accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial safety; index of financial safety (IFS); Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model; MCMC; Gibbs sampler; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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