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Regional structural change and the effects of job loss

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  • Arntz, Melanie
  • Ivanov, Boris
  • Pohlan, Laura

Abstract

Routine-intensive occupations have been declining in many countries, but how does this affect individual workers' careers if this decline is particularly severe in their local labor market? This paper uses administrative data from Germany and a matched difference-in-differences approach to show that the individual costs of job loss strongly depend on the task-bias of regional structural change. Workers displaced from routine manual occupations have substantially higher and more persistent employment and wage losses in regions where such occupations decline the most. Regional and occupational mobility partly serve as an adjustment mechanism, but come at high cost as these switches also involve losses in firm wage premia. Non-displaced workers, by contrast, remain largely unaffected by structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Arntz, Melanie & Ivanov, Boris & Pohlan, Laura, 2022. "Regional structural change and the effects of job loss," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-019, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22019
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    1. Weller, Jürgen, 2022. "Tendencias mundiales, pandemia de COVID-19 y desafíos de la inclusión laboral en América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de Proyectos 48610, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Susan Athey & Lisa K. Simon & Oskar N. Skans & Johan Vikstrom & Yaroslav Yakymovych, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Earnings Impact of Job Loss Across Workers, Establishments, and Markets," Papers 2307.06684, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Ivanov, Boris, 2023. "Changes in Occupational Tasks and the Costs of Job Loss," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277669, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Henry Redondo, 2023. "From bricklayers to waiters: Reallocation in a deep recession," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 27, Stata Users Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    routine-biased structural change; local labor markets; displacement; mass-layoffs; plant closures; matching; difference-in-differences; event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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