IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bon/boncrc/crctr224_2020_131v2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Gulyas
  • Krzysztof Pytka

Abstract

We implement a generalized random forest (Athey et. al. 2019) to a difference-in-difference setting to identify substantial heterogeneity in earnings losses across displaced workers. Using administrative data from Austria over three decades we document that a quarter of workers face cumulative 11-year losses higher than 2 times their pre-displacement annual income, while almost 10% of individuals experience gains. Our methodology allows us to consider many competing theories of earnings losses. We find that the displacement firm's wage premia and the availability of well paying jobs in the local labor market are the two most important factors. This implies that earnings losses can be understood by mean reversion in firm wage premia and losses in match quality, rather than by a destruction of firm-specific human capital. We further show that 94% of the cyclicality of earnings losses is explained by compositional changes of displaced workers over the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2020. "Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_131v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_131v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp131
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Eeckhout & Philipp Kircher, 2011. "Identifying Sorting--In Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 872-906.
    2. Christina Gathmann & Ines Helm & Uta Schönberg, 2020. "Spillover Effects of Mass Layoffs," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 427-468.
    3. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historial Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," Working Papers 1309, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. David Card & Jörg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Workplace Heterogeneity and the Rise of West German Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 967-1015.
    5. Ichino, Andrea & Schwerdt, Guido & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimüller, Josef, 2017. "Too old to work, too young to retire?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 14-29.
    6. repec:pri:indrel:dsp01kw52j8087 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pawel Krolikowski, 2017. "Job Ladders and Earnings of Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-31, April.
    8. Gregor Jarosch, 2015. "Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss," Working Papers 2015-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    9. José Azar & Ioana Marinescu & Marshall Steinbaum, 2022. "Labor Market Concentration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 167-199.
    10. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    11. Kenneth A. Couch & Dana W. Placzek, 2010. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 572-589, March.
    12. Martin Halla & Julia Schmieder & Andrea Weber, 2020. "Job Displacement, Family Dynamics, and Spousal Labor Supply," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 253-287, October.
    13. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    14. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    15. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Nov), pages 2-20.
    16. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2017. "Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 369-373, May.
    17. Schaller, Jessamyn & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2015. "Short-run effects of job loss on health conditions, health insurance, and health care utilization," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 190-203.
    18. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1999. "High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-334, March.
    19. Michael C. Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2022. "Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 597-636.
    20. Marcus Hagedorn & Tzuo Hann Law & Iourii Manovskii, 2017. "Identifying Equilibrium Models of Labor Market Sorting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 29-65, January.
    21. Neal, Derek, 1995. "Industry-Specific Human Capital: Evidence from Displaced Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 653-677, October.
    22. Andreas I. Mueller, 2017. "Separations, Sorting, and Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 2081-2107, July.
    23. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    24. Sexton, Joseph & Laake, Petter, 2009. "Standard errors for bagged and random forest estimators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 801-811, January.
    25. Lindo, Jason M., 2011. "Parental job loss and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 869-879.
    26. Schwerdt, Guido & Ichino, Andrea & Ruf, Oliver & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimüller, Josef, 2010. "Does the color of the collar matter? Employment and earnings after plant closure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 137-140, August.
    27. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2017. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 688-722, October.
    28. Mari Rege & Kjetil Telle & Mark Votruba, 2011. "Parental Job Loss and Children's School Performance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(4), pages 1462-1489.
    29. Jonathan M.V. Davis & Sara B. Heller, 2017. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs," NBER Working Papers 23443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Tanja Hethey-Maier & Johannes F. Schmieder, 2013. "Does the Use of Worker Flows Improve the Analysis of Establishment Turnover? Evidence from German Administrative Data," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 133(4), pages 477-510.
    31. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    32. Andreas Gulyas, 2018. "Identifying Labor Market Sorting with Firm Dynamics," 2018 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Marta Lachowska & Alexandre Mas & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2020. "Sources of Displaced Workers' Long-Term Earnings Losses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3231-3266, October.
    34. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," NBER Working Papers 17040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Daniel Sullivan & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis Using Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1265-1306.
    36. Topel, Robert, 1990. "Specific capital and unemployment: Measuring the costs and consequences of job loss," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 181-214, January.
    37. Farber, Henry S, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5696, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Brandily & Camille Hémet & Clément Malgouyres, 2022. "Understanding the Reallocation of Displaced Workers to Firms," Working Papers halshs-03082302, HAL.
    2. Andreas Gulyas & Sebastian Seitz & Sourav Sinha, 2023. "Does Pay Transparency Affect the Gender Wage Gap? Evidence from Austria," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 236-255, May.
    3. Hannah Illing & Johannes Schmieder & Simon Trenkle, "undated". "The Gender Gap in Earnings Losses After Job Displacement," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_381, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Michael C Knaus, 2022. "Double machine learning-based programme evaluation under unconfoundedness [Econometric methods for program evaluation]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 602-627.
    5. Ines Helm & Alice Kuegler & Uta Schoenberg, 2023. "Displacement Effects in Manufacturing and Structural Change," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2313, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    6. Costanza Naguib, 2023. "Is the Impact of Opening the Borders Heterogeneous?," Diskussionsschriften dp2312, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    7. Antoine Bertheau & Edoardo Maria Acabbi & Cristina Barceló & Andreas Gulyas & Stefano Lombardi & Raffaele Saggio, 2023. "The Unequal Consequences of Job Loss across Countries," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 393-408, September.
    8. Bertheau, Antoine & Acabbi, Edoardo & Barcelo, Cristina & Gulyas, Andreas & Lombardi, Stefano & Saggio, Raffaele, 2022. "The Unequal Cost of Job Loss across Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 15033, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Patrick Arni & Pether H. Egger & Katharina Erhardt & Matthias Gubler & Philip Sauré, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," Working Papers 2409, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    10. Arntz, Melanie & Ivanov, Boris & Pohlan, Laura, 2022. "Regional structural change and the effects of job loss," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-019, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Evan D. Peet & Dana Schultz & Susan Lovejoy & Fuchiang (Rich) Tsui, 2024. "The infant health effects of doulas: Leveraging big data and machine learning to inform cost‐effective targeting," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 1387-1411, June.
    12. Valente, Marica, 2023. "Policy evaluation of waste pricing programs using heterogeneous causal effect estimation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Marta De Philippis & Enrico Sette & Eliana Viviano, 2020. "The Long Run Earnings Effects of a Credit Market Disruption," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_169v3, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    14. repec:bny:wpaper:0109 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Henry Redondo, 2023. "From bricklayers to waiters: Reallocation in a deep recession," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 27, Stata Users Group.
    16. Holmberg, Johan, 2021. "Earnings and Employment Dynamics: Capturing Cyclicality using Mixed Frequency Data," Umeå Economic Studies 991, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neffke, Frank & Nedelkoska, Ljubica & Wiederhold, Simon, 2024. "Skill mismatch and the costs of job displacement," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(2).
    2. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2017. "Explaining wage losses after job displacement: Employer size and lost firm rents," IWH Discussion Papers 32/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Martin Halla & Julia Schmieder & Andrea Weber, 2020. "Job Displacement, Family Dynamics, and Spousal Labor Supply," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 253-287, October.
    4. repec:bny:wpaper:0109 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hannah Illing & Johannes Schmieder & Simon Trenkle, "undated". "The Gender Gap in Earnings Losses After Job Displacement," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_381, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    6. Woodcock, Simon D., 2023. "The determinants of displaced workers’ wages: Sorting, matching, selection, and the Hartz reforms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 568-595.
    7. Brendan Moore & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2019. "The Firm's Role in Displaced Workers' Earnings Losses," NBER Working Papers 26525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Martti Kaila & Emily Nix & Krista Riukula, 2021. "Disparate Impacts of Job Loss by Parental Income and Implications for Intergenerational Mobility," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Audoly, Richard & De Pace, Federica & Fella, Giulio, 2022. "Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss," CEPR Discussion Papers 17746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Eliason, Marcus & Hensvik, Lena & Kramarz, Francis & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2023. "Social connections and the sorting of workers to firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 468-506.
    11. Ivandić, Ria & Lassen, Anne Sophie, 2023. "Gender gaps from labor market shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Boddin, Dominik & Kroeger, Thilo, 2021. "Structural change revisited: The rise of manufacturing jobs in the service sector," Discussion Papers 38/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2017. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 688-722, October.
    14. Jose Garcia‐Louzao & Marta Silva, 2024. "Coworker networks and the labor market outcomes of displaced workers: Evidence from Portugal," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 389-413, July.
    15. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    16. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Loss of skill during unemployment and TFP differences across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 215-235.
    17. Gathmann, Christina & Huttunen, Kristiina & Jernström, Laura & Sääksvuori, Lauri & Stitzing, Robin, 2020. "In Sickness and in Health: Job Displacement and Health. Spillovers in Couples," Working Papers 133, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Susan Athey & Lisa K. Simon & Oskar N. Skans & Johan Vikstrom & Yaroslav Yakymovych, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Earnings Impact of Job Loss Across Workers, Establishments, and Markets," Papers 2307.06684, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    19. Fujita, Shigeru, 2018. "Declining labor turnover and turbulence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Patrick Bennett & Amine Ouazad, 2020. "Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence from Danish Microdata and Reforms [The Link between Human Capital, Mass Layoffs, and Firm Deaths]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2182-2220.
    21. Seim, David, 2019. "On the incidence and effects of job displacement: Evidence from Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 131-145.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job displacement; Earnings losses; Causal machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_131v2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CRC Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.crctr224.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.