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The return to college: Selection and dropout risk

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  • Hendricks, Lutz
  • Leukhina, Oksana

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of graduating from college on lifetime earnings. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with uncertain graduation. Departing from much of the literature, we model in detail how students progress through college. This allows us to parameterize the model using transcript data. College transcripts reveal substantial and persistent heterogeneity in students' credit accumulation rates that are strongly related to graduation outcomes. From this data, the model infers a large ability gap between college graduates and high school graduates that accounts for 54% of the college lifetime earnings premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendricks, Lutz & Leukhina, Oksana, 2014. "The return to college: Selection and dropout risk," CFS Working Paper Series 487, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:487
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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2017. "How Risky is College Investment?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 140-163, October.
    2. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2017. "How Risky is College Investment?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 140-163, October.
    3. Sungwon Lee, 2020. "Identification and Confidence Regions for Treatment Effect and its Distribution under Stochastic Dominance," Working Papers 2011, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    4. Kartik B. Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos, 2020. "Who Values Access to College?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 20-03, pages 1-5, March.
    5. Matsuda, Kazushige & Mazur, Karol, 2022. "College education and income contingent loans in equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 100-117.
    6. Ege Aksu & Sidhya Balakrishnan & Eric Bettinger & Jonathan S. Hartley & Michael S. Kofoed & Dubravka Ritter & Douglas A. Webber, 2024. "Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection"," Working Papers 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Obiols-Homs, F. & Sánchez-Marcos, V., 2018. "Education outcomes and the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 14-28.
    8. Yang, Guanyi & Casner, Ben, 2021. "How much does schooling disutility matter?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 87-95.
    9. Ferreyra,Maria Marta & Garriga,Carlos & Martin,Juan David & Sanchez Diaz,Angelica Maria, 2020. "Raising College Access and Completion : How Much Can Free College Help ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9428, The World Bank.
    10. Sungwon Lee, 2021. "Partial Identification and Inference for Conditional Distributions of Treatment Effects," Papers 2108.00723, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    11. Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos & Felicia Ionescu & Kartik Athreya, 2016. "Investment Opportunities and the Sources of Lifetime Inequality," 2016 Meeting Papers 1177, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Kartik Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Ivan Vidangos & Urvi Neelakantan, 2018. "Investment Opportunities and Economic Outcomes: Who Benefits From College and the Stock Market?," 2018 Meeting Papers 1151, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Giuseppe Bertola, 2023. "University dropout problems and solutions," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 221-248, April.
    14. Francesc Obiols-Homs & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2015. "Education, Occupation-Mismatch and Unemployment," Working Papers 807, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Ali Ozdagli & Nicholas Trachter, 2014. "The Dropout Option in a Simple Model of College Education," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 279-295.
    16. Grove, Wayne A. & Jetter, Michael & Papps, Kerry L., 2021. "Career lotto? Labor supply in a superstar market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 362-376.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Education; College premium; College dropout risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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