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How Risky is College Investment?

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Listed:
  • Lutz Hendricks
  • Oksana Leukhina

Abstract

This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of U.S. college students drop out without earning a bachelor’s degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The innovation is to model in detail how students progress towards a college degree. The model is calibrated using transcript and financial data. We find that more than half of college entrants can predict whether they will graduate with at least 80% probability. As a result, stylized policies that insure students against the financial risks associated with uncertain graduation have little value for the majority of college entrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2015. "How Risky is College Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5203, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How Risky Is College Investment?
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2015-12-16 11:30:39

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo Castex, 2017. "College risk and return," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 91-112, October.
    2. Bernhard Eckwert & Itzhak Zilcha, 2020. "The role of colleges within the higher education sector," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(2), pages 315-336, March.
    3. Jo Blanden & Matthias Doepke & Jan Stuhler, 2022. "Education inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp1849, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Kartik B. Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos, 2020. "Who Values Access to College?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 20-03, pages 1-5, March.
    5. Kevin Donovan & Christopher Herrington, 2019. "Factors Affecting College Attainment and Student Ability in the U.S. since 1900," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 224-244, January.
    6. Matsuda, Kazushige & Mazur, Karol, 2022. "College education and income contingent loans in equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 100-117.
    7. Kevin Donovan & Christopher Herrington, 2019. "Factors Affecting College Attainment and Student Ability in the U.S. since 1900," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 224-244, January.
    8. Ferreyra,Maria Marta & Garriga,Carlos & Martin,Juan David & Sanchez Diaz,Angelica Maria, 2020. "Raising College Access and Completion : How Much Can Free College Help ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9428, The World Bank.
    9. Manuel Macera & Hitoshi Tsujiyama, 2018. "Frictional Labor Markets, Education Choices and Wage Inequality," 2018 Meeting Papers 827, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Jing Jian Xiao & Nilton Porto & Irene McIvor Mason, 2020. "Financial capability of student loan holders who are college students, graduates, or dropouts," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1383-1401, December.
    11. Matsuda, Kazushige, 2020. "Optimal timing of college subsidies: Enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    education; college dropout risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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