IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

Author

Listed:
  • Bussolo,Maurizio
  • Capelle,Damien Fierre Jean
  • Lokshin,Michael M.
  • Torre,Ivan
  • Winkler,Hernan

Abstract

During the last quarter century, job tenure in Europe has shortened. Using data from EurostatLabor Force Surveys of 29 countries from 1995 to 2020 and applying an age-period-cohort decomposition to analyzechanges in tenure for specific birth cohorts, this paper shows that tenure has shrunk for cohorts born in more recentyears. To account for compositional changes within cohorts, the analysis estimates the probability of holding jobs ofdifferent durations, conditional on individual and employment-related characteristics. The estimationsdemonstrate that, over time, the likelihood of having a medium- or long-term job decreased and holding a short-termjob increased. The paper also finds that stricter job protection legislation appears to decrease the probabilityof holding a short-term job, and higher trade openness and ICT-related technological change are correlated with anincrease of that probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bussolo,Maurizio & Capelle,Damien Fierre Jean & Lokshin,Michael M. & Torre,Ivan & Winkler,Hernan, 2022. "Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10205, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099837210132225353/pdf/IDU00fffd1290db73048f10a7af09b773884162b.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Anica Kramer & Sylvi Rzepka, 2015. "Labour market dynamics and worker heterogeneity during the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Guido W. Imbens & Michal Kolesár, 2016. "Robust Standard Errors in Small Samples: Some Practical Advice," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 701-712, October.
    4. Martin Browning & Ian Crawford & Marike Knoef, 2012. "The age-period cohort problem: set identification and point identification," CeMMAP working papers 02/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Katharine G. Abraham & James R. Spletzer & Michael J. Harper, 2010. "Introduction to "Labor in the New Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 1-13, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Clark, Andrew & Knabe, Andreas & Rätzel, Steffen, 2010. "Boon or bane? Others' unemployment, well-being and job insecurity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 52-61, January.
    7. Daniëlle Bertrand-Cloodt & Frank Cörvers & Ben Kriechel & Jesper Thor, 2012. "Why Do Recent Graduates Enter into Flexible Jobs?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 157-175, June.
    8. Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini & Giovanna Vallanti, 2014. "Female labour market participation in Europe: novel evidence on trends and shaping factors," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, December.
    9. Didier Fouarge & Andries Grip & Wendy Smits & Robert Vries, 2012. "Flexible Contracts and Human Capital Investments," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 177-195, June.
    10. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
    11. Werner Eichhorst & Paul Marx & Caroline Wehner, 2017. "Labor market reforms in Europe: towards more flexicure labor markets?," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 51(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:51:i:1:p:art.3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Harrison, Rupert & Jaumandreu, Jordi & Mairesse, Jacques & Peters, Bettina, 2014. "Does innovation stimulate employment? A firm-level analysis using comparable micro-data from four European countries," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 29-43.
    14. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    15. Joseph G. Altonji & Nicolas Williams, 2005. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority? A Reassessment," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 58(3), pages 370-397, April.
    16. Arozamena, Leandro & Centeno, Mario, 2006. "Tenure, business cycle and the wage-setting process," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 401-424, February.
    17. Burgess, Simon & Propper, Carol & Rees, Hedley & Shearer, Arran, 2003. "The class of 1981: the effects of early career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-309, June.
    18. Duncan, Greg J & Hill, Daniel H, 1985. "An Investigation of the Extent and Consequences of Measurement Error in Labor-Economic Survey Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 508-532, October.
    19. Sylvain Weber & Giovanni Ferro Luzzi, 2014. "From Lifetime Jobs to Churning?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 227-260, September.
    20. Sandrine CAZES & Mirco TONIN, 2010. "Employment protection legislation and job stability: A European cross-country analysis," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 261-285, September.
    21. Ronald BACHMANN & Rahel FELDER, 2018. "Job stability in Europe over the cycle," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(3), pages 481-518, September.
    22. Simon Burgess, 1999. "The Reallocation of Labour: An International Comparison Using Job Tenure," CEP Discussion Papers dp0416, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    23. Bell, David N.F. & Blanchflower, David G., 2010. "Youth Unemployment: Déjà Vu?," IZA Discussion Papers 4705, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Italo Colantone, 2012. "Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation: evidence from Belgium," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(4), pages 669-706, December.
    25. Espen Bratberg & Kjell G. Salvanes & Kjell Vaage, 2010. "Has Job Stability Decreased? Population Data from a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 163-183, March.
    26. Origo, Federica & Pagani, Laura, 2009. "Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 547-555, October.
    27. Alex Bryson & Christine Erhel & Zinaida Salibekyan, 2021. "Perceptions of non-pecuniary job quality using linked employer–employee data," European Journal of Industrial Relations, , vol. 27(2), pages 113-129, June.
    28. David Neumark, 2002. "Youth Labor Markets In The United States: Shopping Around Vs. Staying Put," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 462-482, August.
    29. Boeri, Tito, 1999. "Enforcement of employment security regulations, on-the-job search and unemployment duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-89, January.
    30. Bardazzi, Rossella & Pazienza, Maria Grazia, 2017. "Switch off the light, please! Energy use, aging population and consumption habits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 161-171.
    31. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    32. Simon Burgess & Hedley Rees, 1998. "A Disaggregate Analysis of the Evolution of Job Tenure in Britain, 1975–1993," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 629-655, December.
    33. Charles L. Baum, 2022. "Seven jobs in a lifetime? An analysis of employee tenure," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 543-567, April.
    34. Michael J. Pries & Richard Rogerson, 2022. "Declining Worker Turnover: The Role of Short-Duration Employment Spells," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 260-300, January.
    35. Christopher R. Bollinger & Barry T. Hirsch & Charles M. Hokayem & James P. Ziliak, 2019. "Trouble in the Tails? What We Know about Earnings Nonresponse 30 Years after Lillard, Smith, and Welch," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2143-2185.
    36. Olof Åslund & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Do when and where matter? initial labour market conditions and immigrant earnings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 422-448, March.
    37. Paul Gregg & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2002. "Job tenure in Britain, 1975–2000. Is a job for life or just for Christmas?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 111-134, May.
    38. Vicente Donoso & V�ctor Mart�n & Asier Minondo, 2015. "Do Differences in the Exposure to Chinese Imports Lead to Differences in Local Labour Market Outcomes? An Analysis for Spanish Provinces," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(10), pages 1746-1764, October.
    39. Spyros Arvanitis & Euripidis Loukis, 2015. "Employee education, information and communication technologies, workplace organization, and trade: a comparative analysis of Greek and Swiss firms," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 24(6), pages 1417-1442.
    40. Abraham, Katharine G. & Spletzer, James R. & Harper, Michael (ed.), 2010. "Labor in the New Economy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226001432, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maurizio Bussolo & Michael M. Lokshin & Nicolás Oviedo & Iván Torre, 2024. "The evolution of job tenure in transition economies," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 449-471, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maurizio Bussolo & Michael M. Lokshin & Nicolás Oviedo & Iván Torre, 2024. "The evolution of job tenure in transition economies," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 449-471, April.
    2. Xavier St-Denis & Matissa Hollister, 2024. "Are All the Stable Jobs Gone? The Transformation of the Worker–Firm Relationship and Trends in Job Tenure Duration and Separations in Canada, 1976–2015," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 38(3), pages 657-683, June.
    3. Ronald BACHMANN & Rahel FELDER, 2018. "Job stability in Europe over the cycle," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(3), pages 481-518, September.
    4. Sascha O. Becker & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2015. "Trade and tasks: an exploration over three decades in Germany," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(84), pages 589-641.
    5. Diane Confurius & Herman van de Werfhorst & Jaco Dagevos & Ruben Gowricharn, 2023. "Flexible labour market and trade unions: Surprising career paths of Dutch sub‐Saharan Africans," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 336-365, June.
    6. Ronald Bachmann & Rahel Felder, 2021. "Labour market transitions, shocks and institutions in turbulent times: a cross-country analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 329-352, May.
    7. Brunello, Giorgio & Wruuck, Patricia, 2019. "Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatch in Europe: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12346, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Darko, Christian K. & Occhiali, Giovanni & Vanino, Enrico, 2018. "The Chinese are Here: Firm Level Analysis of Import Competition and Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 273142, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Xavier St‐Denis & Matissa Hollister, 2023. "Two paths towards job instability: Comparing changes in the distribution of job tenure duration in the United Kingdom and Germany, 1984–2014," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 723-751, September.
    10. Brunello, Giorgio & Wruuck, Patricia & Maurin, Laurent, 2019. "Skill shortages and skill mismatch in Europe: A review of the literature," EIB Working Papers 2019/05, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    11. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    12. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Tiago Pereira, 2016. "The effect of developing countries' competition on regional labour markets in Portugal," GEE Papers 0058, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    14. Tschopp, Jeanne, 2015. "The Wage Response to Shocks: The Role of Inter-Occupational Labour Adjustment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 28-37.
    15. Thomas Barnay, 2016. "Health, work and working conditions: a review of the European economic literature," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(6), pages 693-709, July.
    16. James Spletzer & Elizabeth Weber Handwerker, 2015. "The Role of Establishments and the Concentration of Occupations in Wage Inequality," Working Papers id:7427, eSocialSciences.
    17. Adrienne Eaton & Charles Heckscher, 2021. "COVID's Impacts on the Field of Labour and Employment Relations," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 275-279, January.
    18. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    19. Stefan Eriksson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2014. "Do Employers Use Unemployment as a Sorting Criterion When Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 1014-1039, March.
    20. Gagliardi, Luisa, 2019. "The impact of foreign technological innovation on domestic employment via the industry mix," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1523-1533.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.