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Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Gelles Le Garrec
  • Cyrille Schwellnus

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the demographic and economic consequences of endogenous migrations flows over the coming decades in a multi-regions overlapping generations general equilibrium model (INGENUE 2) in which the world is divided in ten regions. Our analysis offers a global perspective on the consequences of international migration flows. The value-added of the INGENUE 2 model is that it enables us to analyze the effects of international migration on both the destination and the origin regions. A further innovation of our analysis is that international migration is treated as endogenous. In a first step, we estimate the determinants of migration in an econometric model. We show, in particular, that the income differential is one of the key variables explaining migration flows. In a second step, we endogenize migration flows in the INGENUE 2 model. In order to do so, we use the econometrically estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in the INGENUE model, which enables us to project long-run migration flows and to improve on projections of purely demographic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki & Gelles Le Garrec & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2009. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0385, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0385
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    2. Marcus H. Böhme & Sarah Kups, 2017. "The economic effects of labour immigration in developing countries: A literature review," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 335, OECD Publishing.
    3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    6. Leite, Duarte N. & Afonso, Óscar & Silva, Sandra T., 2019. "A tale of two countries: Directed technical change, trade and migratory movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 173-194.
    7. Joan Muysken & Thomas Ziesemer, 2014. "The Effect of Immigration on Economic Growth in an Ageing Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-63.
    8. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    9. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    10. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kahanec, Martin & Giulietti, Corrado & Guzi, Martin & Barrett, Alan & Maitre, Bertrand, 2012. "Study on Active Inclusion of Migrants," IZA Research Reports 43, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGEM; Migration; International capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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